人口老龄化、社会保障支出与收入分配

Population Aging, Social Security Expenditure and Income Distribution

促进人口长期均衡发展与扎实推进共同富裕是中国“十四五”时期的战略目标。基于统一框架对人口老龄化、社会保障支出与收入分配的关系进行理论刻画,并对人口老龄化与社会保障支出的收入分配效应展开定量评估。研究发现:人口老龄化是中国收入分配失衡的重要驱动因素,老龄化显著扩大了收入不平等;从整体来看,发展不均衡、支出规模偏低等因素限制了社会保障支出对收入分配的调节作用,其再分配功能有待进一步优化;此外,人口老龄化与社会保障支出对收入分配存在交互效应,随着社会保障支出规模提高,老龄化对收入分配的不利影响将逐渐弱化。因此,要逐步扭转人口老龄化对国民收入分配格局造成的负面冲击,应在强化共济性原则的基础上适度提高社会保障支出规模,以更好地实现社会公平。

Promoting long-term balanced population development and solidly promoting shared prosperity are the strategic goals of China during the period of the 14th Five-Year Plan.This paper theoretically describes the relationship among population aging,shared prosperity,social security expenditure and income distribution under the unified framework,and quantitatively evaluates the income distribution effects of population aging and social security expenditure.The results show that population aging is a key driving factor of China's imbalance in income distribution,and the aggravation of population aging significantly expands income inequality.On the whole,such factors as uneven development and a relatively low level of expenditure limit the regulatory role of social security expenditure in income distribution,and its redistribution function needs further optimization.In addition,population aging and social security expenditure have an interactive effect on income distribution.With the increase of the social security expenditure,the marginal impact of aging on income distribution will gradually weaken.Based on the above discussion,it can be concluded that in order to gradually reverse the negative impact of population aging on the distribution pattern of the national income,it is necessary to moderately increase the social security expenditure on the basis of strengthening the principle of social security solidarity in order to better achieve social equity.