黑海粮食协议中断对全球粮食市场影响及中国应对策略

The Impact of the Interruption of the Black Sea Grain Agreement on the Global Grain Market and China’s Countermeasures

2022年2月俄乌冲突爆发,加剧全球粮食供给偏紧局面,引发全球关切。为促进全球粮食安全,缓解两国经济困境,2022年7月规定两国可通过安全的海上人道主义走廊出口粮食和肥料的黑海粮食协议签订,但由于双方在协议的内容和执行上存在分歧,2023年7月黑海粮食协议中断。本文从“俄乌冲突爆发—黑海粮食协议签订—黑海粮食协议中断”的动态变化过程着手,构建了“黑海粮食协议的主要内容和角色—黑海粮食协议中断对各方的影响”对比性研究框架,分析黑海粮食协议执行期间粮食外运规模、出口分布,继而研究黑海粮食协议中断对全球和中国粮食市场的影响。研究发现,乌克兰共通过黑海粮食走廊出口粮食3 285.60万吨,对改善全球粮食供应紧张起到积极作用,但对保障世界最贫穷国家和低收入人群的粮食需求作用不足;同时,协议期间乌克兰收益增加但俄罗斯的权益未得到满足。黑海粮食协议中断使得全球粮食供给回到俄乌冲突爆发之初,引发部分国家出口限制,造成供应进一步短缺,但相对于2022年俄乌冲突爆发之际,黑海粮食协议中断引发的市场价格波动更为缓和,粮食市场对此有所准备。为防范国际市场供给异动对中国的不良影响,中国作为粮食消费和进口大国,需未雨绸缪,坚持底线思维,持续完善粮食安全保障体系,提高全球粮食供应链韧性,将粮食安全的主动权掌握在自己手中。

The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022 has exacerbated the tight global food supply and caused global concern.In order to promote global food security and ease the economic difficulties of the two countries,Black Sea Grain Agreement,which stipulates that the two countries can export food and fertilizer through a safe maritime humanitarian corridor,was signed in July 2022,but due to differences between the two sides on the content and implementation of the agreement,Black Sea Grain Agreement was suspended in July 2023.Starting from the dynamic change process of“the outbreak of Russian-Ukrainian conflict-the signing of the Black Sea Grain Agreement-the interruption of the Black Sea Grain Agreement”,this study constructed a comparative research framework of“the main contents and functions of the Black Sea Grain Agreement-the impact of the interruption of the Black Sea Grain Agreement on all parties”,and analyzed the scale of grain export and export distribution during the implementation of Black Sea Grain Agreement.Then we study the impact of the interruption of the Black Sea Grain Agreement on the global and Chinese food market.The study found that Ukraine exported a total of 32.856 million tons of grain through Black Sea Grain Agreement,which played a positive role in improving the global food supply shortage,but did not play a sufficient role in ensuring the food needs of the world’s poorest countries and low-income people.Meanwhile,during the agreement period,Ukraine’s income increased but Russia’s rights and interests were not met.The suspension of Black Sea Grain Agreement has returned global food supplies to the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,triggering export restrictions in some countries,causing further supply shortages,but compared to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022,the market price volatility caused by the suspension of Black Sea Grain Agreement is more moderate,and the food market is prepared for this.In order to prevent the adverse impact of supply fluctuations in the international market on China,China,as a major food consumer and importer,needs to plan ahead,adhere to the bottom line thinking,continue to improve the food security system,improve the resilience of the global food supply chain,and take the initiative in food security in our own hands.