农业产业园区建设提升农业全要素生产率了吗?——基于“国家现代农业示范区”的准自然实验

Has the Construction of Agricultural Industrial Parks Improved Agricultural Total Factor Productivity?—Quasi Natural Experiment Based on National Modern Agricultural Demonstration Zones

农业全要素生产率提升是农业高质量发展的核心,农业政策落地将直接影响农业全要素生产率的变动。以“国家现代农业示范区”政策为例,采用2005—2020年中国263个地市的面板数据,建立多时点双重差分(DID)模型,考察农业产业园区建设对农业全要素生产率的影响。结果显示:(1)国家现代农业示范区的设立,对农业全要素生产率提升具有显著的促进作用,经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论仍然成立。政策效应具有持久性,随着设立时间的推移,国家现代农业示范区对农业全要素提升的推动作用越来越大。(2)国家现代农业示范区设立主要通过改善电力、农田水利基础设施的方式促进农业全要素生产率的发展,但借助农业种植结构调整的路径不显著。(3)发达地区、非粮食主产区及高粮食产量和化肥施用强度地市的国家现代农业示范区,对农业全要素生产率提升具有更强的政策效果。优化农业产业园区政策,有助于农业由传统的“要素驱动型”向“效率驱动型”发展模式转变。

The improvement of agricultural total factor productivity is the core of high-quality agricultural development,and the implementation of agricultural policies will directly affect the changes of agricultural total factor productivity(TFP).Taking the policy of“National Modern Agricultural Demonstration Zones”as an example,using the panel data of 263 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2020,a multi-period DID model was established to investigate the impact of the policy of regional agricultural industrial parks on agricultural TFP.The results show that:①The establishment of National Modern Agricultural Demonstration Zones has a significant role in promoting agricultural TFP,and after a series of robustness tests,the conclusion is still valid.Furthermore,the policy effect is persistent,and with the passage of time,the promotion effect of National Modern Agricultural Demonstration Zones on TFP in agriculture becomes increasingly significant.②The establishment of National Modern Agricultural Demonstration Zones mainly promotes the development of agricultural TFP by improving the electric power,farmland and water conservancy infrastructure,but the path of agricultural structure adjustment is not significant.③National Modern Agricultural Demonstration Zones in developed areas,non-major grain producing areas,and cities with higher grain output and fertilizer application intensity,have a stronger policy effect on improving agricultural TFP.By optimizing the policies of agricultural industrial parks,it will contribute to the transformation of agriculture from the traditional“factor-driven”to the“efficiency-driven”development model.