台湾地区2024年“二合一”选举结果及影响分析

An Analysis of the Results and Implications of the 2024 Taiwan's“Two-in-One”Elections

台湾地区2024年“二合一”选举在中美战略博弈持续、两岸关系严峻复杂的形势下举行。各主要政党展开激烈竞逐,打破岛内传统政治生态格局。民进党赖清德以未过半的相对多数票当选,立法机构呈“三党不过半”新局,折射出加速分化的岛内民意以及多元竞合的政党政治新态势。未来4年,岛内政局将在民进党当局“三重少数”执政下以立法机构为重心展开角力,政局恐将动荡不安。两岸关系的对抗性和不确定性进一步上升,内地发展进步将持续增强对两岸关系的主导权和主动权,民进党继续执政无法改变两岸关系发展基本格局。

The 2024 Taiwan's leader and legislator elections took place amidst continued strategic competition between China and the United States as well as a complex and tense cross-Straits situation.The major political parties on the island engaged in fierce competition,departing from Taiwan's traditional political ecological pattern.Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party(DPP)won the leadership election with a relative majority of less than half of the votes,while the result of legislature election presented a new situation of“no single party of the three winning over the half”.It reflects the accelerated polarization of public opinion and the emergence of a new political landscape characterized by diverse competition among parties.In the next four years,the political situation on the island is likely to be tumultuous under the rule of the DPP,which holds a disadvantaged position in overall popularity,legislative seats,and local government representation.And the legislature will be the focal point of contention among political parties.The confrontational and uncertain nature of cross-Straits relations will continue to escalate,making the situation in the Taiwan Straits even more complex and precarious.However,the development and progress of the Chinese mainland will continue to enhance its dominant position in cross-Straits relations.The four years of DPP's ruling of Taiwan region will not change the basic pattern of cross-Straits relations'development.