川西地区高地应力岩爆风险动态评估方法与应用研究

Study on dynamic assessment method and application of rockburst risk under high crustal stresses in western Sichuan

针对高地应力隧道施工条件复杂致使岩爆风险难以评估的现状,提出隧道岩爆风险动态评估方法。采用故障树分析法辨识岩爆风险源,筛选风险评估指标;以风险矩阵法为研究基础,将可能性等级和严重性等级的评估范围由离散点扩展为一个区间,细化等级标准,构建风险等级评估区域图;基于静态风险指标体系,通过引入动态权重概念实现岩爆可能性等级的细化,为岩爆风险建立动态评估模型。以桃子坪隧道为例,论述岩爆风险动态评估方法的实施过程,经评估其结果与实际施工情况吻合,可为实际隧道工程施工风险管理提供理论和实践指导,具有良好的应用前景。

A dynamic assessment method for rockburst risk in tunnels is proposed in response to the complex construction conditions of high ground stress tunnels,which make it difficult to assess rockburst risk.Fault tree analysis method is adopted to identify rockburst risk sources and to screen risk assessment indicators.Based on the risk matrix method,the values of probability level and severity level are expanded from discrete points to a range,refining the classification criteria and constructing a risk level assessment regional map.The dynamic assessment model for rockburst risk is established by introducing the concept of dynamic weight based on the static risk indicator system,thus achieving a finer classification of rockburst probability levels.Taking the Taoziping tunnel as an example,the implementation process of the dynamic assessment method for rockburst risk is discussed.After evaluation,the results are consistent with the actual construction situation.The research can provide theoretical and practical guidance for the risk management of actual tunnel engineering construction and have good application prospects.