上海市洪涝灾害损失对长江下游地区的辐射影响

The radiative impact of flood losses in Shanghai on the economy of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River

随着区域经济一体化程度的加深,跨区域产业关联损失已成为灾害损失评估不容忽视的一部分,准确量化洪涝灾害损失的辐射影响对于制定防灾减灾措施、减少洪涝灾害损失具有重要作用。在系统评估了不同暴雨重现期情景下上海市减停产损失的基础上,采用两区域投入产出模型,测算和分析了长江下游地区不同省(直辖市)的区域内乘数效应、区域间溢出效应和区域间反馈效应,量化了上海市洪涝灾害损失对长江下游地区的辐射影响。结果表明,暴雨重现期10 a、20 a、30 a、50 a、100 a时,上海市的减停产损失分别为14.01亿元、19.83亿元、25.58亿元、33.82亿元和46.24亿元;在长江下游地区,上海市与浙江省的经济相互影响强度最大,且跨区域产业关联损失以溢出效应为主导;上海市发生洪涝灾害时,跨区域波及效应将导致长江下游地区损失增加26.24%。因此,在城市之间联系日益紧密的情况下,不仅要关注洪涝灾害对自身的影响,同时也要采取有效措施减少地域之间的波及影响,以便更有效地开展防灾减灾工作。

With the deepening of regional economic integration,transregional industry-related loss has become an important part of disaster loss assessment.Accurately quantifying the radiation impact of flood loss plays an important role in formulating disaster prevention and mitigation measures and reducing flood loss.Based on the systematic assessment of the loss from production shutdown or reduction under different rainstorms recurrence periods in Shanghai,this study adopted the two-region input-output model to calculate and analyze the intra-regional multiplier effect,inter-regional spillover effect and inter-regional feedback effect of different provinces of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River,and quantified the radiation impact of flood disaster loss in Shanghai on the lower Yangtze River region.The results show that with10 a,20 a,30 a,50 a,and 100 a return period of rainstorm,the loss from production shutdown or reduction in Shanghai is 1.401 billion yuan,1.983 billion yuan,2.558 billion yuan,3.382 billion yuan and 4.624 billion yuan,respectively.In the lower reaches of the Yangtze River,Anhui Province has the largest economic linkage,Shanghai and Zhejiang Province have the largest economic interaction,and the inter-regional industrial linkage loss is dominated by spillover effect.In the event of flood disaster in Shanghai,the cross-regional spread effect will lead to 26.24%increase in losses in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River.Therefore,in today's increasingly close relationship between cities,we should not only pay attention to the impact of flood disasters on ourselves,but also take effective measures to reduce the spread impact between regions,so as to more effectively carry out disaster prevention and reduction work.