基于区间理论的油田综合能源系统优化规划

Optimal planning of oilfield integrated energy system based on interval theory

针对油田的能源结构和用能负荷的特征,构建了油田综合能源系统架构;考虑可再生能源出力的不确定性和油田多元负荷用能的随机性,建立了光伏、光热出力的区间模型,热负荷区间模型和基于价格型响应的电负荷区间模型;通过分析设备投资成本的时间价值和区域碳中和途径,建立一种计及源荷不确定性的综合能源系统规划模型,并结合仿射算法和区间序关系,将不确定性优化问题转化为确定性的多目标优化问题进行求解。算例分析表明,油田综合能源系统架构符合油田能源禀赋和负荷实际耦合情况,设备配置方案投资回收年限短,不确定性权重系数越高,投资越大,年净收益区间越大,结果验证了规划方法的有效性。与传统鲁棒凸规划优化方法相比,所提方法为决策者提供了满足区间约束的解集,避免了规划方案的保守性。

Aiming at the energy structure and the energy consumption load characteristics for the oilfield,the architecture of the oilfield integrated energy system is constructed.Considering the uncertainty of renewable energy output and the randomness of energy consumption for oilfield multi-load,the interval model of photovoltaic output and solar thermal output,thermal load interval model and electric load interval model based on price-type response are established.By analyzing the time value of equipment investment cost and the regional carbon neutralization approach,a planning model of integrated energy system considering the uncertainty of source and load is established.Combined with the affine algorithm and the interval order relationship,the uncertain optimization problem is transformed into the deterministic multi-objective optimiza-tion problem for solution.The example analysis shows that the architecture of oilfield integrated energy sys-tem conforms to the oil field energy endowment and actual coupling of loads,the equipment configuration plan has a short investment recovery period,the higher the uncertainty weight coefficient,the larger the in-vestment and the annual income interval.The results verify the effectiveness of the planning method.Com-pared with traditional robust convex programming optimization methods,the proposed method provides deci-sion makers with a solution set that satisfies the interval constraints,and avoids the conservatism of the planning schemes.