基于互Box-Cox变换和Markov链风速云模型的发电系统充裕度评估

Adequacy assessment of power generation system based on wind speed cloud model of mutual Box-Cox transform and Markov chain

为准确计及风速随机性和自相关性对风电并网系统充裕度的影响,建立基于互Box-Cox变换和Markov链的风速云模型,并将该模型与时序Monte Carlo模拟法结合,提出计及风速随机性和自相关性的风电并网系统充裕度评估方法。仿真结果表明,所提模型产生的仿真风速样本与实测风速样本具备相似的概率分布特性和自相关性,所提方法可较精确地评估风电并网系统充裕度及风电容量可信度。

In order to accurately consider the effect of wind speed randomness and autocorrelation on the adequacy of wind power integrated system,a wind speed cloud model based on mutual Box-Cox transform and Markov chain is established,and the model is combined with the time-series Monte Carlo simulation method,an adequacy assessment method of wind power integrated system is proposed considering the ran-domness and autocorrelation of wind speed.The simulative results show that the wind speed samples simu-lated by the proposed model have similar probability distribution characteristic and autocorrelation with the measured wind speed samples,and the proposed method can accurately assess the adequacy and wind power capacity credit of wind power integrated system.