不同中断情形下汽车供应链中断的恢复策略研究——基于系统动力学的仿真分析

Research on the Recovery Strategy for Automotive SupplyChain Disruption under Different Disruption Situations:Based on System Dynamics Simulation and Analysis

在汽车供应链节点企业内外部环境不确定性加剧的环境下,汽车供应链更容易受到突发事件的影响而发生运作中断。为此,文章将汽车供应链中断恢复策略分为企业自主恢复与政府补贴恢复两类恢复策略,构建了以整车制造商为核心的四级汽车供应链模型,运用系统动力学仿真方法,比较分析了不同中断情形下六种不同恢复策略对企业决策和供应链总绩效的影响。结果表明:在市场、供应、生产同时中断情境下,补贴制造商提升产能与中断后制造商增加额外班次生产策略对供应链中断的恢复效果最佳,供应链总利润最高、各主体库存水平最低、处理积压库存速度最快;启用第三方合同制造商向供应商供货的恢复策略仅在供应、生产中断系数超过一定阈值的情境下才对供应链产生正向恢复效果。文章研究成果为供应链企业在面临不同中断情景时提供决策支持与指导,有助于提升供应链绩效水平。

With the increasing uncertainty of the internal and external environment of the node enterprises of the automobile supply chain,the automobile supply chain is more susceptible to the impact of emergencies and operation interruption.Therefore,this paper divideds the automobile supply chain disruption recovery strategies into two types of recovery strategies:enterprise independent recovery and government subsidy recovery.A four-level automobile supply chain model with the vehicle manufacturer as the core was constructed,and the effects of six different recovery strategies on enterprise decision-making and total supply chain performance under different disruption situations were compared and analyzed by using system dynamics simulation method.The results show that:in the case of market,supply and production interruption at the same time,the strategy of subsidizing manufacturers to increase production capacity and adding extra production shifts after interruption has the best effect on the recovery of supply chain interruption,the highest total profit of supply chain,the lowest inventory level of each main body,and the fastest handling of overstock.The recovery strategy of using the third party contract manufacturer to supply to the supplier has a positive recovery effect on the supply chain only when the supply and production interruption coefficient exceeds a certain threshold.The research results of this paper provide decision support and guidance for supply chain enterprises when facing different disruption scenarios,and help to improve supply chain performance.