金沙江梯级库区生态系统服务供需耦合协调度及驱动因素

Coupling Coordination Degree and Driving Factors of Ecosystem Service Supply and Demand in Jinsha River Cascade Reservoir Area

[目的]探索金沙江梯级水电工程库区生态系统服务供需关系的时空演变规律及其驱动因素,为水电工程库区生态管理提供决策支撑。[方法]基于金沙江梯级水电工程库区土地利用、人口、国内生产总值、归一化植被指数和降水量等数据,采用市场价值法、耦合协调度模型和地理加权回归模型等方法,开展库区生态系统服务供需耦合协调度及其驱动因素研究。[结果]2005—2019年期间库区生态系统服务价值增加了6.8亿元,总量达到了917亿元。生态系统服务供需严重失调和重度失调的区域,主要分布于金沙江北岸的四川省境内,勉强协调和良好协调的区域主要分布于金沙江南岸的云南省境内。植被覆盖对库区生态系统服务供需耦合度呈现正向驱动关系,人口和地形起伏度为负向驱动关系,降水量对库区北部局部地区为正向驱动关系,其余地区为负向驱动关系。[结论]库区生态系统服务供需耦合协调度呈现南高北低的空间分布特征,且受多重因素影响,未来应加强水电工程库区生态系统服务研究。

[Objective]We explored the spatiotemporal evolution pattern and driving factors of ecosystem service coupling coordination between supply and demand in the Jinsha River cascade hydropower project reservoir area,and provided decision-making supports for ecological management of hydropower project reservoir area.[Methods]Based on the data of land uses,population,GDP,NDVI and precipitation in the Jinsha River Cascade hydropower project reservoir area,market value method,coupled coordination degree model and geographically weighted regression model were used to study ecosystem service coupling coordination degree between supply and demand and its driving factors.[Results]The value of ecosystem service in the reservoir area reached 91.7 billion yuan in 2019,and the total value of ecosystem service increased by 680 million yuan during the study period.The spatial distribution of coupling coordination degree between ecosystem service supply and demand in the reservoir area was relatively stable.The regions of extreme maladjustment and severe maladjustment mainly distributed on the north bank of Jinsha River,while the regions of grudging coordination and good coordination mainly distributed on the south bank of Jinsha River.Vegetation cover had a positive driving effect on the coupling coordination degree between ecosystem service supply and demand in the Jinsha River Reservoir Area,population and relief amplitude had the negative driving effect,precipitation had the positive driving relationship to the north of the reservoir area,while the rest of the reservoir areas showed the negative driving effect.[Conclusions]This research showed that the spatial distribution of the coupling coordination degree was high in the south and low in the north and was affected by multiple factors.In the future,it is necessary to strengthen the study of ecosystem services in the reservoir area of hydropower projects.