2000-2020年黄河流域水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调时空演变特征

SpatioTemporal Characteristics of Water-Energy-Food Coupling Coordination in the Yellow River Basin in the Period from 2000 to 2020

[目的]探讨黄河流域水—能源—粮食系统的耦合协调时空演化特征,可为定量评估流域高质量发展和区域可持续发展提供科学依据。[方法]通过耦合协调度模型分析水—能源—粮食系统的综合发展水平和耦合协调特征,并利用灰色关联度对各子系统内部指标进行排序,进而判断对水—能源—粮食系统耦合协调度的影响程度。[结果](1)黄河流域水—能源—粮食系统的综合发展指数呈上升趋势,水资源子系统波动幅度最大。(2) 2000—2020年黄河流域水—能源—粮食系统耦合协调度从初级协调向良好协调阶段发展;不同省区间的系统耦合协调发展水平差异较为明显,整体上可表现为上游地区>中下游地区。(3)各子系统与系统耦合协调度的影响程度排名可表示为水资源子系统>粮食子系统>能源子系统,其中水资源子系统内部指标与系统耦合协调度关联度均在85%以上,水资源子系统相对其他子系统的严格管理尤为重要。[结论]水—能源—粮食系统的耦合协调发展水平有待提高,为促进系统协调发展和流域高质量发展应综合考虑各子系统的相互作用关系。

[Objective]The aims of this study are to explore the coordinated spatiotemporal evolution of water-energy-food system in the Yellow River Basin,and to provide scientific basis for quantitative evaluation of high quality development and regional sustainable development.[Methods]Through the coupling coordination degree model,the comprehensive development level and coupling coordination characteristics of water-energy-food system were analyzed.And the grey correlation degree was used to sort the internal indicators of each subsystem,and then the influence degree on the coupling coordination degree of water-energy-food system was judged.[Results](1)The integrated development index of the water-energy-food system in the Yellow River Basin showed an increasing trend,and the fluctuationof water resources subsystem was the largest.(2)The coupling coordination degree of water-energy-foodsysteminthe Yellow River Basin developed from primary coordination to good coordination stage during 2000—2020.From the perspective of space,the development level of coupling coordination degree between different provinces and regions was significantly different,which could be shown as the upstream region>the middle and downstream region.(3)The ranking of the influence degree of the coupling coordination degree of each subsystem and system could be expressed as water resources subsystem>food subsystem>energy subsystem.The correlation degree between the internal factors of the water resources system and the coupling coordination degree of the system was above 85%.The strict management of the water resources system was particularly important compared with other subsystems.[Conclusion]The coupling and coordinated development level of water-energy-food system needs to be improved.In order to promote the coordinated development of the system and the high-quality development of the basin,the interaction of subsystems should be considered comprehensively.