家庭养老能力评价指标体系构建与实证分析

Construction and Empirical Analysis of the Evaluation Index System for Family Elderly Care Ability

家庭养老能力事关社会养老服务需求与发展,亟需构建科学有效的家庭养老能力评价指标体系。文章利用CHARLS2018年调查数据,构建出由自我养老能力、配偶养老能力和子女养老能力组成的3个准则指标,共有9个子准则指标和17个观测指标构成的家庭养老能力综合评价指标体系。采用熵权法和复相关系数法确定指标权重,并运用U检验、H检验和空间相关性分析家庭养老能力及其分维度的分布特征。结果显示:子女养老能力、自我养老能力和配偶养老能力权重系数分别为0.555、0.288和0.157。家庭养老能力的得分为0.433±0.091,子女养老能力、自我养老能力和配偶养老能力分维度得分分别为0.121±0.056、0.066±0.019和0.245±0.069,均呈现右偏分布,子女养老能力维度失分最多,自我养老能力维度差异性最大。女性、农村和西部地区老人的家庭养老能力显著弱于男性、城市和东部地区老人。低龄老人自我养老能力和配偶养老能力显著较高,但子女养老能力也显著低于高龄老人。中国家庭养老能力居前三位的是上海市、北京市和新疆维吾尔自治区,云南省、甘肃省和安徽省居后三位。研究发现中国家庭养老能力总体得分不高,自我养老能力与子女养老能力之间呈现“互补”态势。家庭养老能力分布呈现性别、城乡和区域差异性。养老服务体系需基于当前家庭养老能力及其分维度的地区差异性,因地制宜发展。

The ability of family elderly care is related to the demand and development of social elderly care services,and there is an urgent need to build a scientific and effective evaluation index system for family elderly care ability.Us-ing the CHARLS 2018 survey data,a comprehensive evaluation index system for family elderly care capacity was con-structed,consisting of three criteria indicators:self-care ability,spouse elderly care ability,and children elderly care ability.There were a total of 9 sub criteria indicators and 17 observation indicators.The entropy weight method and complex correlation coefficient method were used to determine the weight of the indicators.U-test,H-test and Spatial Correlation were used to analyze the group characteristics of family elderly care capacity distribution.The results showed that the weight coefficients of children’s elderly care ability,self elderly care ability,and spouse elderly care ability were 0.5552,0.2880,and 0.1570,respectively.The average score of family elderly care ability was 0.433±0.091,and the scores of child elderly care ability,self elderly care ability,and spouse elderly care ability dimension were 0.121±0.056,0.066±0.019,and 0.245±0.069,respectively,all showing a right skewed distribution.The chil-dren’s ability to provide for the aged lose the most points in the dimension of their ability to provide for the aged,and the difference in the dimension of their own ability to provide for the aged was the largest.The family elderly care capac-ity of women,rural and western elderly areas was significantly weaker than that of men,urban and eastern elderly areas.The elderly in the younger age group had significantly higher self-care ability and spouse care ability,but their chil-dren’s care ability was also significantly lower than that of the elderly in the older age group.The top three provinces in China’s family elderly care capacity were Shanghai,Beijing,and Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region,while Yunnan Province,Gansu Province,and Anhui Province rank last.Research suggests that the overall score of family elderly care ability in China is not high,and there is a“complementary”trend between self elderly care ability and children’s elder-ly care ability.The distribution of family elderly care capacity shows gender,urban-rural,and regional differences.The elderly care service system in China needs to be based on the current family elderly care capacity and regional differ-ences in its dimensions,and develop according to local conditions.