环鄱阳湖城市群土地利用碳排放传导效应及预测

Transmission Effect and Prediction of Land Use Carbon Emissions in Urban Agglomeration Around Poyang Lake

[目的]量化地类转化视角下土地利用碳传导效应,预测环鄱阳湖城市群未来土地利用碳排放趋势,并为区域低碳土地利用管理提供决策依据。[方法]基于2000—2020年环鄱阳湖城市群土地利用碳排放变化结果,构建碳传导效应测度模型揭示土地利用转移内部碳排放变化情况,并借助FLUS-Markov模型和GM-Markov模型对未来土地利用碳排放进行了预测。[结果]2000—2020年环鄱阳湖城市群共有1.01×10^(4)km^(2)土地发生转化,耕地与林地间的相互转化以及耕地转为建设用地最为活跃。2000—2020年环鄱阳湖城市群土地利用净碳排放由8.79×10^(6)t增至3.63×10^(7)t,碳源/碳汇比值逐年上升,其中,建设用地为主要碳源,林地为主要碳汇。不同时期土地利用碳传导效应均表现为碳排放,且呈先增后减态势,研究期间共产生4.05×10^(7)t碳排放,主要由耕地、林地和水域向建设用地转化引致。2025年、2030年、2035年环鄱阳湖城市群土地利用碳排放预测结果为4.13×10^(7)t,4.69×10^(7)t和5.39×10^(7)t。[结论]未来环鄱阳湖城市群土地利用碳排放仍会持续增加,减排重心应集中在减少建设用地碳源和增加林地碳汇两方面。

[Objective]The purposes of the study are to quantify the land use carbon conduction effect from the perspective of land type transformation,to predict the future land use carbon emission trend of the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake,and to provide a decision-making basis for regional low-carbon land use management.[Methods]Based on the results of carbon emissions change of land use in the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake from 2000 to 2020,a carbon transmission effect measurement model was constructed to reveal the change of internal carbon emissions of land use transfer,and the FLUS-Markov model and GM-Markov model were used to predict the future carbon emissions of land use.[Results]From 2000 to 2020,a total of 1.01×10^(4)km^(2)land in the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake was transformed,and the mutual transformation between cultivated land and forestland and the conversion of cultivated land to construction land were the most active.From 2000 to 2020,the net carbon emissions from land use of urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake increased from 8.79×10^(6) t to 3.63×10^(7)t,and the carbon source/sink ratio increased year by year.Among them,construction land was the main carbon source and forestland was the main carbon sink.The carbon transmission effect of land use in different periods showed carbon emissions,which increased first and then decreased.A total of 4.05×10^(7)t carbon emission was generated during the study period,which was mainly caused by the transfer of farmland,forestland and water area to construction land.In 2025,2030 and 2035,the carbon emissions from land use of the urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake will be 4.13×10^(7)t,4.69×10^(7)t and 5.39×10^(7)t,respectively.[Conclusion]In the future,the carbon emissions from land use in urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake will continue to increase.The focus of emission reduction should be on reducing the carbon sources of construction land and increasing the carbon sinks of forestland.