现实主义视阈下阿联酋外交转型探析

From “Bandwagoning” to “Buck-passing”:the Transformation of UAE Foreign Policy in the Perspective of Realism

2011年中东剧变后,阿联酋外交显著转型。外交策略从“扈从主义”转向“推卸责任”,外交风格先由温和稳健转向激进活跃。阿联酋频繁介入地区冲突,运用军事和援助等手段拓展影响力投射范围,遏制政治伊斯兰、伊朗等势力。阿联酋外交转型的内因是新领导层的地缘政治雄心,外因是伊朗与政治伊斯兰的崛起。阿联酋外交转型对其自身和中东地缘政治格局带来深远影响。囿于实力不济等因素,阿联酋外交转型遭受挫折,已开始向温和外交回调,预示着阿联酋外交转型目标难以实现。本文从现实主义视角出发,在“推卸责任”理论视角下,梳理阿联酋建国以来的外交政策,运用层次分析法考察阿联酋外交转型动因,探讨其影响与趋势。

After the Middle East Upheaval,the UAE's diplomacy has undergone a significant transformation,which is from strategy of “Bandwagoning” to “Buck-passing”.From the perspective of realism,this paper attempts to sort out the UAE's foreign policy since its founding under the theoretical framework of “Buck-passing”,and uses the analytic hierarchy process to investigate the motivations of the UAE's diplomatic transformation,and discuss the influence and trend of the UAE's diplomatic transformation.Through the study,it can be found that the shift from the strategy of UAE reflects the change of the UAE's diplomatic style from unobtrusive and steady to aggressive and active,and then back to moderate,and the new foreign policy being provided with the characteristics of nationalism and pragmatism.After 2011,the UAE has frequently intervened in regional conflicts and used the way of military and aid to expand its sphere of influence and reshape the regional pattern.The internal reasons for the transformation of the UAE's diplomacy stem from its ambition to become a regional leader and the adjustment of its domestic policies;The external factors result from its increased awareness of political Islam and Iranian threats and changes of the international environment.In order to safeguard its own security and national interests,the UAE adopts a strategy of “Buck-passing”,uniting its allies and other regional regimes to hold back the expansion of political Islam,Iran and other forces.Besides,the transformation has a profound impact on itself and the geopolitical pattern of the Middle East.However,due to factors such as state power,the UAE's diplomatic transition has suffered setbacks and has begun to change back to moderate diplomacy,which indicates the goal of the UAE's diplomatic transformation is difficult to achieve.