贸易政策如何影响大国的经济增长与社会福利?——一个理论分析

How Trade Policies Affect Economic Growth and Social Welfare in Large Countries?——A Theoretical Analysis

大国之间的贸易摩擦将如何影响彼此的长期产出与福利?本文构建一个双要素的贸易与增长的动态模型。模型发现:当发达国家(N国)对发展中国家(S国)加征关税,短期会增加N国产出并减少S国的产出与福利,但长期影响取决于S国能否进行产业升级。若S国能够进行产业升级,N国关税会使得S国资本回报率上升,产业升级加速,并最终增加S国的产出与福利;若S国不能够进行产业升级,则N国关税会长期减少S国的产出与福利。

How does trade conflict between two large countries affect their long-run output and welfare? We develop a dynamic model and find that:when a developed country(N) imposes a sudden tariff on a developing country(S),in the short run it raises its own output and hurts the output and welfare of country S,but the long-run impact depends on the industrial structure of country S.If country S succeeds in industrial upgrading,tariff will raise the capital return in country S and facilitates its endowment-driven industrial upgrading;otherwise,tariff will hurt output and welfare of country S.