投入品预期关税减让与企业投资——基于中国入世过渡期的分析

Input Tariff Phase-Out and Firm Investment Dynamics——Evidence from China's WTO Accession

本文从理论与实证两个方面探究贸易协定对投入品未来进口关税约束税率的承诺如何影响企业投资决策。理论分析表明,非预期的实际关税减让会对下游企业投资产生扩张性影响,而预期关税减让则会产生当期紧缩、未来扩张的效果。实证部分以中国加入世界贸易组织为背景,为理论推论提供支持。本文将有关消息冲击的研究范围首次拓展到了中国贸易政策研究领域,为政策制定者理解减税协议工作机制、协商与制定合适的减税协议,提供更为全面的考虑因素。

We investigate how the commitments of trade agreement on bound rates of future tariff on imported inputs affect firm investment decisions theoretically and empirically.Theoretical analysis shows that the unanticipated tariff cut encourages the investment of downstream firms,while the anticipated tariff cut depresses firms' current investment but expands their future investment,and it may not have such effects on the intermediate inputs.The empirical analysis based on China's WTO accession provides supporting evidence.This study expands the scope of research on the news shocks to the field of trade policy research in China for the first time.