“动态集聚”还是“集聚动态”:制造业集群韧性提升的路径

Is it“dynamic agglomeration”or“agglomeration dynamics”:The path to improve the resilience of the manufacturing cluster

如何提升全国制造业集群的韧性,对于制定产业政策和推动经济高质量发展具有十分重要的作用。本文通过历史回顾提炼中国部分制造业集群集聚的多阶段典型事实,区分制造业集群发展的“动态集聚”与“集聚动态”,构建基于重组机制的韧性提升分析,提出单一阶段或多阶段提升的两种情形。文章使用1978—2022年中国制造业集群的生存企业数据,分析制造业集群的“动态集聚”即集聚趋势的变化,及其积极应对不利经济冲击和主动调整升级的程度。多维固定效应模型显示不同行业中类的制造业集群类别呈现较大的差异;根据环境的变化,集群可能通过加深本地专业化或扩大多样化等方式来实现适应,其中,多样化是提升集群韧性的主要调整渠道,且整体多样性与集群韧性呈现U型结构。因此,需要加快“产业链集群”的建设步伐,选择长期韧性发展路径,协助中国制造业集群占领全球价值链制高点。

How to improve the resilience of China's manufacturing cluster plays a very important role in formulating industrial policies and promoting high-quality economic development.Through historical review,the paper extracts the multi-stage typical facts of some manufacturing clusters in China,distinguishes the“dynamic agglomeration”and“agglomeration dynamics”in the development of manufacturing clusters,constructs the resilience improvement analysis based on the restructuring mechanism,and puts forward two situations of single stage or multi-stage improvement.The paper uses the data of survival enterprises in China's manufacturing cluster from 1978-2022 to analyze the“dynamic agglomeration”of the manufacturing cluster,that is,the change of the agglomeration trend,and the degree of actively responding to adverse economic shocks and actively adjusting and upgrading.The multi-dimensional fixed effect model shows that there are quite differences in categories of manufacturing clusters in different industries;according to the environmental change,the cluster may adapt by deepening local specialization or expanding diversification,and diversification is the main adjustment channel to improve the cluster resilience,and the overall diversity and cluster resilience present a U-shaped pattern.Therefore,it is necessary to accelerate the construction of“industrial chain cluster”,choose the long-term resilient development path,and assist China's manufacturing cluster to occupy the commanding heights of the global value chain.