2000—2020年中国县市尺度流动人口地域类型演变及其影响因素

Regional types evolution of China's county-level floating population and influencing factors during 2000-2020

县市尺度上的流动人口是中国城镇化的核心主体之一,也是城市规模增长的主要贡献者,明确县市尺度的人口流动特征具有重要意义。本文基于2000年、2010年和2020年人口普查分县数据,将流动人口统计口径在空间尺度上进行转换,核算3个时期中国县市尺度的流入、流出人口,根据修正复合指标法将其划分为六种基本地域类型,运用多项Probit模型从经济发展、公共服务、地理区位和自然环境四个维度探究影响流动人口地域类型形成的因素。研究发现:①县市尺度流动人口绝对规模持续增长,人口流动活跃性增强,县市整体由相对不活跃的“低活跃性”时代逐步走向“高活跃性”时代;②平衡活跃型多转化为净流出活跃型,小规模净流出活跃型由东南沿海不断向内陆扩散,逐渐成为主导地域类型,大规模净流出活跃型实现从无到有的转变;③数量占比不足5%的大规模净流入活跃型县市集聚了全国超六成的流入人口,小规模净流入型县市对流动人口吸引力不断降低;④当前,经济因素仍是塑造流动人口地域类型空间格局的主要力量,非农就业机会和城镇化率越高的县市越容易成为净流入活跃型,但非经济因素对其影响正在逐步加强。

The floating population at county-level units is the core of China's urbanization and the main contributor to the urban scale's growth.It is essential to clarify the characteristics of population movement at county-level units.The paper examines the statistical definitions of the floating population for the censuses in 2000,2010 and 2020,calculates the in-migrants and outmigrants of the population at the county-level units in China,classifies them into six regional types according to the modified composite-index method.Finally,a multinomial probit model is applied to investigate the factors affecting the formation of the geographical type of floating population from four dimensions:economic development,public services,geographic location and natural environment.The main results are listed as follows:(1)There has been a sharp increase in the floating population at county-level units,and the floating population has become more active,and the population has gradually moved from an era of“low activity”to an era of“high activity”;(2)The actively balanced migration type is transformed into the active net outmigration type,and the small-scale active net out-migration gradually spreads from the southeast coastal areas to the inland areas,and gradually become the dominant geographical type,large-scale active net out-migration type has been transformed from non-existent to existing;(3)The large-scale active net in-migration type of counties and cities,which accounts for less than 5% of the country's total number,concentrates more than 60% of the floating population,and small-scale active net in-migration counties have become less attractive to the floating population;(4)Currently,economic factors are still the main force shaping the spatial pattern of the regional types of the floating population,with counties and cities of more per capita GDP,non-farm employment opportunities and urbanization rates being more likely to be net-influx active,but the influence of non-economic factors on them is gradually strengthening.