珠三角乡城流动人口居留意愿的分异及影响因素——基于家庭生命周期视角

The differentiation of rural-urban floating population's settlement intention and its determinants in Pearl River Delta

基于家庭生命周期理论,通过GIS空间分析工具和二元logistics回归分析为主的数理统计方法,探讨珠三角乡城流动人口长期居留意愿的空间分异、群体分异及影响因素。研究表明:①珠三角乡城流动人口长期居留意愿空间分布呈现中心-外围圈层模式并出现了较为明显的空间集聚现象,与城镇化率、流动人口规模占比空间分布相反。②单身期、形成期、扩张期、稳定期四类乡城流动人口家庭的平均年龄、迁入地居住年限、月均总支出和长期居留意愿呈递增规律性变化。③珠三角乡城流动人口长期居留意愿的影响因素主要有经济因素、迁入地因素、迁移因素、社会保障因素以及个体特征因素。④经济因素、迁移范围、每万人医疗机构数和迁入地区位对四类乡城流动人口家庭长期居留意愿均产生显著影响,其中经济因素影响最大;迁入地因素对单身期和稳定期乡城流动人口家庭的长期居留意愿较形成期和扩张期家庭影响更为显著。最后基于研究结论,提出相应的政策建议。

Based on family life-cycle theory,this paper explores the spatial differentiation,group differentiation,and factors affecting the willingness of long-term residence of ruralurban migrants in Pearl River Delta(PRD)through GIS spatial analysis and binary logistics regression analysis.The results shows that:(1)The spatial distribution of the willingness of rural-urban migrant population in the PRD to stay in the countryside for a long period of time shows a center-periphery circle pattern and a significant spatial clustering phenomenon,which is contrary to the spatial distribution of the urbanization rate and the percentage of migrant population.(2)The average age,length of residence in the place of relocation,and average monthly total expenditure of rural-urban migrant households with different life cycles in the single,formation,expansion,and stabilization stages show regular differences,and their willingness to stay in the countryside for a long period of time shows an increasing regularity of change.(3)The main factors affecting the long-term residence intention of rural-urban floating population in the PRD are economic factors,place of relocation factors,migration factors,social security factors and individual characteristics factors.(4)Economic factors,migration scope,number of medical institutions per 10,000 people and migration location have a significant impact on the long-term residence intention of the four types of rural-urban floating population,among which economic factors have the greatest impact.The influence of external factors on long-term residence intention is more significant in single and stablization stages than in formation and expansion stages.(5)In addition,factors such as housing expenditure,proportion of local registered population,gender,medical insurance for urban workers,years of residence in the place of migration,and age in the single stage will also affect the long-term settlement intention of rural-urban floating population.The long-term settlement intention of rural-urban floating population is also affected by their education level in the stage of formation.The long-term settlement intention of rural-urban floating population is also affected by housing expenditure,new rural cooperative medical care,education level and length of residence in the place of immigration in the stage of expansion.The long-term settlement intention of rural-urban floating population is also affected by housing expenditure,the proportion of local registered residence population,education level,medical insurance for urban employees,length of residence in the place of immigration,GDP per capita,and age in the stage of stability.Finally,according to research findings,we propose the governance policies.