2024年美欧货币政策动向及其影响

U.S.and European Monetary Policy Trends and Implications in2024

预期中的国际货币环境变化,必然会对国内产生较大的外部影响,可能会出现一些与2023年明显不同的变化。一是人民币的贬值压力减弱,甚至在某个阶段还会出现一定的升值压力;二是外贸出口形势稳中向好,尤其在价格竞争或性价比上,有望出现明显的好转;三是人民币资产的吸引力有所上升,2023年下半年出现的流动性偏紧状况有望出现明显的缓解。

The expected changes in the international monetary environment will inevitably have a significant external impact on the domestic economy,perhaps including a number of changes that are markedly different from those in 2023.First,the depreciation pressure on the RMB has weakened,and there will even be some appreciation pressure at a certain point;Second,the export is stable and improving,hopefully implying improvements especially in terms of price competition or cost-effectiveness;Third,the attractiveness of RMB assets has risen,and the liquidity crunch that appeared in the second half of 2023 is expected to show a marked easing.