消费升级孕育人力资本红利

Consumption Upgrading Breeds Human Capital Dividend

基于中国2013—2020年城市级别数据,考察消费升级能否以及如何影响经济发展。研究结果表明:第一,消费升级对经济发展有显著的直接促进作用,并基于消费的积累性,可从人力资本质量和人力资本结构两方面为经济发展孕育人力资本红利;第二,在异质性方面,由消费升级孕育的人力资本红利在人口流入地相对更大,在人口流出地相对更小;第三,门槛回归结果显示,以劳动力的教育水平作为门槛变量,人口流入地和人口流出地的门槛年限不同,分别为12.31年(职高)和8.67年(初中),当受教育年限大于门槛年限时,消费升级更能促进经济发展。因此,顺应消费升级趋势,应加速培育中高端消费增长点,发挥消费的积累性以实现人力资本积累;同时,加强人才培养,合理引导人口流动,带动经济发展。

Based on China’s urban level data from 2013 to 2020,this paper conducts an empirical research to explore whether consumption upgrading can affect economic developmentand how.The findings show that firstly,consumption upgrading has a significant and direct promoting effect on economic development,and based on the accumulation of consumption,it can breed human capital dividends for economic development from both the quality and structure of human capital;secondly,in terms of heterogeneity,the human capital dividend nurtured by consumption upgrading is relatively larger in the areas of population inflow and smaller in the areas of population outflow;thirdly,the threshold regression results show that,taking the education level of the labor force as the threshold variable,the threshold years for population inflow and outflow are different,with 12.31 years(vocational high school)and 8.67 years(junior high school),respectively.When the education years are greater than the threshold year,consumption upgradingis more able to promote economic development.Therefore,it is necessary to comply with the trend of consumption upgrading,cultivate growth points for medium to high-end consumption,leverage the accumulation of consumption to achieve human capital accumulation,strengthen talent cultivation,reasonably guide population mobility,and drive economic development.