基于结构分解分析的中国建筑业碳增长影响因素识别

Identification of Influencing Factors for the Carbon Growth in China’s Construction Industry Based on Structural Decomposition Analysis

建筑业是我国落实双碳目标的重点领域。为识别建筑业碳排放增长的主要影响因素,基于1997—2017年的数据,构建碳排放核算和结构分解分析模型,分析不同因素的影响效应及其随时间的变化趋势,并从能源和部门两个层面进行分解。结果显示,最终需求规模效应是拉动建筑业碳排放增长最关键的因素,碳排放强度效应一直对碳排放增长起抑制作用,但这种抑制作用随时间增长而减弱,部门关联效应在多数时候起抑制作用;在能源层面,煤炭和电力贡献最大;在部门层面,石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业、金属冶炼和压延加工业和电力、热力的生产和供应业的影响最为显著。

The construction industry is a key area for China to implement the dual-carbon goal.In order to identify the main influencing factors of the growth of carbon emissions in the construction industry,this article constructs a carbon emission accounting and structural decomposition analysis model based on data from 1997 to 2017.Subsequently,the impact of different factors and their trends over time are analyzed.Finally,the growth of carbon emissions in the construction industry is decomposed from the perspectives of energy and industry.The results show that the final demand scale effect is the most critical factor driving the growth of carbon emissions.The carbon emissions intensity effect has always played an inhibitory role in carbon emissions growth,but this inhibitory effect weakens over time.The industrial correlation effect plays an inhibitory role most of the time.At the energy level,coal and electricity contribute the most.At the industrial level,the petroleum processing and coking industry smelting and pressing of metals industry,as well as the production and supply of electricity and heat industry,have the most significant impacts.