数字化转型能够降低银行信用风险吗?——基于交叠DID模型的实证检验

Can Digital Transformation Reduce Bank Credit Risk:An Empirical Test Based on Staggered DID Model

数字化转型已经成为商业银行创新发展趋势,但其对银行风险治理带来的影响不容忽视。本文利用“文本挖掘法”判断银行是否进行了数字化转型,并以2011一2020年74家银行的年度面板数据为样本,采用交叠DID模型,考察数字化转型对银行信用风险的影响及作用机制。研究发现,数字化转型能够显著降低银行信用风险。考虑数字化转型程度后,该结论依然成立。动态处理效应检验结果表明,商业银行进行数字化转型的时间越长,其对信用风险的抑制作用越大,但该抑制作用存在一定的滞后性。进一步将数字化转型分解为“数字化战略”和“数字化技术”两个二级指标进行检验,结果表明,“数字化战略”和“数字化技术”均能显著抑制银行信用风险,且“数字化战略”的抑制作用更强。机制分析表明,商业银行数字化转型可以通过提高管理效率和降低信贷集中度抑制信用风险。本文的研究对银行加快数字化转型和强化信用风险治理具有重要参考意义。

Digital transformation has become a trend in the innovative development of commer-cial banks,but its impact on bank risk governance cannot be ignored.This article uses the"text mining method"to determine whether the bank has undergone digital transformation.This article takes the annual panel data of 74 banks from 201l to 2020 as a sample and uses the staggered DID model to examine the impact and mechanism of digital transformation on bank credit risk.Research has found that digital transformation can significantly reduce bank credit risk.After considering the degree of digital transformation,this conclusion still holds.The results of the dynamic processing effect test indicate that the longer a bank undergoes digital transformation,the greater its inhibitory effect on credit risk,but this inhibitory effect has a certain lag.Moreover,digital transformation is decomposed into two secondary indicators:"digital strategy"and"digital technology"for testing.The results indicate that both "digital strategy"and "digital technology"can significantly suppress bank credit risk,and the inhibitory effect of"digital strategy"is stronger.Mechanism analysis shows that digital transformation of commercial banks can suppress credit risk by improving man-agement efficiency and reducing credit concentration.The research in this article has important ref-erence significance for banks to accelerate digital transformation and strengthen credit risk govern-ance.