黄河流域城市经济韧性影响因素分析与路径识别:基于动态QCA的考察

Grouping Analysis and Path Identification of Factors Influencing the Economic Resilience of Cities in the Yellow River Basin:An Examination Based on Dynamic QCA

城市经济韧性塑造具有集动态性和多视角互动性于一体的复杂特征,导致基于还原论思维的实证研究在解释城市经济韧性时存在一定程度的片面性。本文以2014一2018年黄河流域70个地级市数据为样本,在静态QCA分析的基础上,引入动态多时段QCA方法分析黄河流域城市经济韧性的影响因素组态,探讨黄河流域城市经济韧性的发展路径。研究发现:高城市经济韧性的产生不受单一要素的绝对支配,而是多重因素相互作用的结果,然而提高创新能力在产生高城市经济韧性方面发挥着较为普适的作用;从多重并发的组合效应来看,存在4条路径皆可驱动高城市经济韧性,城市经济韧性的本质或核心动力被政府能动性所左右,在少数情况下,城市产业结构特性在遭受外界扰动或冲击时依然发挥重要作用;多时段QCA进一步识别出以创新突破型和政府主导型为代表的驱动路径以及以创新锁定型和创新限制型为代表的限制路径,政府的能动行为可以超越城市结构性因素限制,创新能力的两极分化对城市经济韧性的作用效果相反。从组态视角研究黄河流域城市经济韧性各影响因素间的互动关系,在一定程度上推动了城市经济韧性研究从单一权变向整体多维视角转变。

The shaping of urban economic resilience has complex characteristics that combine dynamism and multi-perspective interactivity,leading to a certain degree of one-sided interpretation of urban economic resilience in empirical studies based on reductionist thinking.This paper takes the data from 70 prefecture level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2014 to 2018 as a sample,and introduces the dynamic multi-temporal QCA method to analyze the influencing factor groupings of the economic resilience of the cities in the Yellow River Basin on the basis of the static QCA anal-ysis,and explores the development path of the economic resilience of the cities in the Yellow River Basin.It is found that:the generation of high urban economic resilience is not absolutely dominated by a single factor,but the result of the interaction of multiple factors,among which improving in-novation capacity plays a relatively universal role in generating high urban economic resilience.From the perspective of the combined effect of multiple concurrences,there are four paths that can drive high urban economic resilience,and the essence or core driving force of urban economic resili-ence will be swayed by governmental dynamism.In a few cases,the characteristics of urban indus-trial structure still play an important role in the face of external perturbations or shocks.The multi-temporal QCA further identifies the driving paths represented by innovation breakthrough and gov-ernment-led and the limiting paths represented by innovation-locked and innovation-restricted,in which the government's dynamic behaviors can go beyond the limitations of the urban structural factors.The polarization of innovation capacity has an opposite effect on urban economic resilience.From a configuration perspective,the study on the interaction between the influencing factors of ur-ban economic resilience in the Yellow River Basin to a certain extent promotes the study of urban economic resilience from a single weighted variable to an overall multi-dimensional perspective.