人工智能对数字服务出口的影响研究——基于Stanford AI指数的实证检验

Research on the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Digital Services Exports:An Empirical Test Based on the Stanford Al Index

数字经济下数字技术如何影响数字贸易是现有研究关注的热点,但对人工智能如何影响数字贸易研究不足。利用斯坦福大学的人工智能指数并结合各数字服务行业数据强度构建“出口国一进口国一行业一年份”维度的人工智能应用水平指标,围绕2017一2020年主要国家人工智能应用水平对其数字服务出口的影响展开理论剖析与实证研究。研究表明:无论是出口国还是进口国,人工智能应用对促进数字服务出口都具有正向影响,在一系列稳健性与内生性检验后结果依然稳健。异质性分析发现,与一国基于经济层面的人工智能创新发展贸易效应相比,基于人工智能研发层面的贸易促进效应更显著,其中人工智能出版物的创新知识外溢效应比人工智能专利申请具有更强的数字服务出口促进作用,人工智能人力资本的出口促进作用最弱;除此,人工智能应用对不同性质的数字服务行业贸易出口均有促进作用。机制检验显示,人工智能会通过提升生产率水平与削减贸易成本影响数字服务出口。本文可为促进人工智能创新发展、推动人工智能与数字服务贸易深度融合提供政策参考。

How digital technology affects digital trade in the digital economy is a hot topic in the current literaturc,but there is insufficient research on how artificial intelligence(Al)affects digital trade.Based on the Al index of Stanford University and the data intensity of cach digital service in-dustry,this paper constructs an index of the level of Al application in the dimension of"exporter-importer-industry-year",and conducts theoretical analysis and empirical research on the impact of AI application level of major countries on their digital service exports from 2017 to 2020.It is found that the application of Al has a positive impact on the promotion of digital service exports in both exporting and importing countries,and the results are still stable after a series of robustness and endogenous tests.The heterogeneity analysis shows that compared with the trade promotion effect of Al innovation and development based on the cconomic level in a country,the trade promotion effect based on AI research and development is more significant,and thc innovative knowledge spillover effect of Al publications has a stronger export promotion effect of digital services than Al patent applications,and the export promotion effect of Al human capital is the weakest.In addi-tion,the application of AI has a promoting effect on trade exports in digital service industries of dif-ferent natures.The mechanism tests show that AI can affect digital services exports by raising pro-ductivity levels and cutting trade costs.This paper can provide a policy reference for promoting the innovation and development of AI and promoting the deep integration of Al and digital service trade.