俄乌冲突长期化背景下中亚区域互联互通建设新态势及影响探析

An Exploration of New Trends and Impacts of Regional Connectivity Construction in Central Asia in the Context of Prolonged Russia-Ukraine Conflict

历史上贯穿亚欧大陆腹地的主要交通运输路线的形成、走向总因外部势力对该区域的征伐,及势力的消长而发生改变。这既是区域地缘政治结构变化的结果之一,亦是导致特定变化的变量之一。后冷战时期,中亚区域被单一外部势力掌控的可能性持续下降,围绕区域性互联互通建设的大国博弈更加复杂多元。近两年,中亚国家基于自身国家利益提出新的互联互通建设规划,主动性、话语权均有较大增长,并已获得实质性突破。近代以来沦为大陆“腹地”的中亚区域或将因此彻底转变成新的亚欧大陆“枢纽”。究其原因,俄乌冲突长期化所引发的冲击令本区域地缘政治格局调整显著加快,并反映在了包括交通运输建设等诸多领域,目前分析,这对中亚国家利大于弊。

Historically,the formation and direction of the main transport routes running through the hinterland of the Eurasian continent were always changed by the conquest of the region by external powers,and by the waxing and waning of their powers.This phenomenon is both one of the results of changes in the regional geopolitical structure and one of the variables that lead to specific changes.In the post-Cold War period,the possibility of Central Asia being controlled by a single external power continues to decline,and the game of major powers around the construction of regional connectivity routes has become more complex and diverse.Over the past two years,Central Asian countries have put forward new connectivity construction plans based on their own national interests and their initiative and voice have greatly increased.These plans have achieved substantive breakthroughs.The Central Asian region,which has been reduced to a continental"hinterland"in recent times,will thus be completely transformed into a new"hub"for the Eurasian continent.The reason for this is that the impact of the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly accelerated the adjustment of the geopolitical landscape in the region and is reflected in many fields including transportation construction.The current analysis of this trend shows that it will do more good than harm to the Central Asian countries.