地方政府参与科技创新推动产业结构转型升级的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Local Government Participation in Technological Innovation to Promote Industrial Structure Transformation and Upgrading

有为政府与有效市场的持续双向互动,是推动科技创新引领产业结构转型升级、实现高质量发展的关键。以迄今唯一的国家科技创新型试点城市合肥为例,借助合成控制法,基于1999—2020年中国160个地级市数据,构造与合肥尽可能相似的“合成合肥”,并比较“真实合肥”与“合成合肥”在产业结构转型升级上的差距和差异。研究发现:政府参与科技创新的政策干预对产业结构合理化影响不显著,而对产业结构高级化具有显著的促进作用且随着政策推行呈N形曲线变化;政策实施前期,政策效应快速释放,产业结构高级化水平显著提升,随着时间推移,产业结构高级化水平逐渐回落,但快速反弹再次跃升,实现对同期同类城市的加速超越。将实证检验结果与合肥案例的质化提炼相结合,全景阐释政府参与科技创新推动产业结构转型升级的内在机理,为制定实施新一轮的科技创新支持引导政策提供参考。

The continuous bidirectional interaction between a proactive government and an effective market is key to promoting technological innovation-led industrial structure transformation and upgrading,and achieving high-quality development.Taking Hefei,the only national-level technological innovation pilot city to date,this study uses the synthetic control method,based on data from 160 prefecture-level cities in China from 1999 to 2020,to construct a“synthetic Hefei”that is as similar as possible to Hefei,and compares the gap and difference in industrial structure transformation and upgrading between“real Hefei”and“synthetic Hefei”.The study finds that government policy intervention in technological innovation has no significant impact on the rationalization of industrial structure,but has a significant promotional effect on the advancement of industrial structure,which shows an N-curved change with the implementation of the policy.In the early stage of policy implementation,policy effects are quickly released,significantly improving the level of industrial structure advancement.As time goes on,the level of industrial structure advancement gradually falls back but quickly rebounds and rises again,achieving accelerated surpassing of similar cities in the same period.By combining empirical test results with qualitative refinement of the Hefei case,this paper panoramically explains the internal mechanism of government participation in technological innovation to promote industrial structure transformation and upgrading,providing a reference for formulating and implementing a new round of technological innovation support and guidance policies.