育龄人群三孩生育意愿影响因素实证研究

Empirical Research on Factors Influencing Fertility Intention for Childbearing-Age Population to Have Three Children

为研究影响育龄人群三孩生育意愿的因素,对生育观念、养育经验、生育成本,丈夫育儿参与和政策支持五个变量进行分析,发现生育观念对生育意愿产生正向影响,传统生育观念越强,三孩生育意愿越高;生育成本、养育经验对生育意愿产生负向影响,养育费用越高,养育过程中产生的矛盾越多,三孩生育意愿越低;政策支持和丈夫育儿参与两个变量对三孩生育意愿没有产生统计上的显著影响。为促进人口长期均衡发展,应通过采取降低生育成本、改善第一个孩子的养育体验以及完善婴幼儿托育服务体系等措施,提升育龄人群三孩生育意愿。

To investigate the factors influencing the fertility intention of childbearing-age population to have three children,this study analyzed five variables:fertility attitudes,parenting experience,fertility costs,husband’s involvement in childcare,and policy support.It was found that fertility attitudes had a positive impact on fertility intention;the stronger the traditional fertility attitudes,the higher the intention to have three children.Fertility costs and parenting experience had a negative impact on fertility intention;the higher the cost of raising children and the more conflicts generated during the parenting process,the lower the intention to have three children.Policy support and husband’s involvement in childcare did not have a statistically significant impact on the intention to have three children.In order to promote long-term balanced population development,measures should be taken to reduce fertility costs,improve the parenting experience of the first child,and enhance the childcare service system for infants and young children,thereby increasing the fertility intention of childbearing-age population to have three children.