房价对城市全要素生产率的影响机制研究--基于Tobit模型实证分析

The Influence Mechanism of Housing Price on Urban Total Factor Productivity:An Empirical Analysis Based on Tobit Model

基于2008—2016年全国35个大中型城市的面板数据,利用Tobit模型和投入导向型的数据包络分析(DEA)方法探究城市房屋销售价格对城市全要素生产率的影响。研究发现:在整体维度城市房价与城市生产率呈现先增加后减少的倒U型曲线,且城市的房价水平超过了“房住不炒”的最高临界值,房价上升的抑制效应显著。房价对于不同人口规模城市的生产率影响具有异质性,在人口规模达到特大城市时,房价与城市生产率呈现倒U型特征,人口规模达到超大城市后,房价与城市生产率倒U型特征消失。不同类型城市房价与城市生产率之间的倒U型关系和城市的异质性特征表明,我国大中型城市应进行房价的“一城一策”精细化调节,“房住不炒”的政策定位具有坚实理论依据和现实必然。

Based on the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2008 to 2016,Tobit model and input-oriented data envelopment analysis(DEA)method was used to explore the impact of urban housing sales price on urban total factor productivity.It is found that in the overall dimension,the urban housing price and urban productivity present an inverted U-shaped curve,which increases first and then decreases.The urban housing price level exceeds the maximum critical value of“Houses are for living in,not for speculation”,and the inhibiting effect of housing price rise on urban total factor productivity is significant.The effect of housing price on the productivity of cities with different population sizes is heterogeneous.When the city population size reaches the standard of the very large-sized city,the housing price and urban productivity show an inverted U-shaped feature,and when the city population size reaches the standard of the super large-sized city,the inverted U-shaped feature of housing price and urban productivity disappears.The inverted U-shaped relationship between housing prices and urban productivity in different types of cities and the heterogeneity of cities indicate that China's large and medium-sized cities should carry out the fine adjustment of housing prices,and the policy positioning of“Houses are for living in,not for speculation”has a solid theoretical basis and practical necessity.