大运河沿线地区城市韧性与科技创新耦合协调机制

Coupling Coordinated Development of Urban Resilience and Scientific and Technological Innovation in the Grand Canal Area

以京杭大运河沿线地区城市为例,综合运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型、核密度估计分析以及灰色关联度模型对2005—2019年大运河沿线地区城市韧性与科技创新的耦合协调关系及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明:大运河沿线地区城市韧性与科技创新发展水平呈现出稳中有升的态势,但存在显著的区域差异,且这种差异存在扩大的趋势。大运河沿线地区城市韧性与科技创新发展的耦合协同性趋好,但耦合协调状况呈现明显的空间异质性,中心城市明显高于普通城市,存在“南北高、中间低”的空间格局。耦合协调度的核密度分布层次差异性较为明显,“马太效应”显著。耦合协调度受经济发展水平、风险应对能力、应急通信能力、生态发展水平、政府应灾能力以及政府科技投入等因素的影响。

Taking cities along the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal as an example,this study comprehensively uses entropy method,coupling coordination model,kernel density estimation analysis,and grey correlation model to analyze the coupling coordination relationship and influencing factors between urban resilience and technological innovation along the Grand Canal from 2005 to 2019.The results show that the resilience and technological innovation development level of cities along the Grand Canal show a steady and rising trend,but there are significant regional differences,and this difference shows an expanding trend.The coupling and synergy between urban resilience and technological innovation development in the areas along the Grand Canal are improving,but the coupling and coordination situation shows significant spatial heterogeneity.Central cities are significantly higher than ordinary cities,and there is a spatial pattern of“high in the south and north,low in the middle”.The hierarchical differences in the nuclear density distribution of coupling coordination degree are relatively obvious,and the“Matthew effect”is significant.The degree of coupling coordination is influenced by factors such as economic development level,risk response ability,emergency communication ability,ecological development level,government disaster response level,and government technology investment.