基于LMDI模型的土地利用碳排放时空差异及影响因素研究——以洞庭湖区为例

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Carbon Emissions from Land Use and Its Influencing Factors Based on LMDI Model:A Case Study of the Dongting Lake Area

运用碳排放系数法和对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)模型,对1996—2020年洞庭湖区土地利用变化、土地利用碳排放时空差异及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明:(1)土地利用变化整体呈现出“三增三减”特征,建设用地和未利用地的变化程度较为显著,水域和草地次之,耕地和林地的变化程度最小。(2)总净碳排放量呈不断上升趋势,碳排放高值区由中部转向西、东、南部,土地利用碳足迹压力指数始终大于1,以0.54的年均增幅不断上升。(3)人均GDP、单位GDP用地面积和单位土地碳排放强度是影响土地利用碳排放的主要因子,人均GDP和单位GDP用地面积分别成为促进和减缓洞庭湖区碳排放量增长的主要因素。

The spatial and temporal differences in land use,land use carbon emissions and their influencing factors in the Dongting Lake area from 1996 to 2020 were analyzed by using the carbon emission coefficient method and LMDI model.The results showed that:(1)The overall land use change was characterized by“three increases and three decreases”,with construction land and unused land changing significantly,followed by waters and grassland,and cultivated land and forest land changing to a least extent.(2)The total net carbon emission showed a rising trend,and the high carbon emission area shifted from central to southwest and east,the land use carbon footprint pressure index was always much greater than 1 and was increasing at an average annual rate of 0.54.(3)GDP per capita,land use intensity per unit of GDP and carbon emission intensity per unit of land were the main factors of carbon emission from land use in the study area,and GDP per capita and land area per unit of GDP were the most important factors contributing to and slowing down the growth of carbon emissions in the Dongting Lake area,respectively.