保护植物太行菊属在中国的潜在适生区预测

Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas for Protective Plant Opisthopappus in China

为分析太行菊属(Opisthopappus)植物在中国的地理分布及影响因素,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和ArcGIS软件预测太行菊属植物在中国的潜在适宜分布区。结果显示,太行菊属植物主要分布在河南、河北及山西三省交界处,适生区分布范围为31.5°—40.5°N、112.5°—120.3°E,适生区总面积为21.86万km2,运用刀切法(Jackknife)计算各环境变量对太行菊属植物分布的影响,最冷季度平均温度、年降水量、昼夜温差与年温差比值、温度季节性变化标准差、最冷月分最低温度和最干季节平均温度6个环境变量是影响太行菊属植物分布的主要因素。MaxEnt模型AUC值为0.994,表明模型预测结果极好。未来气候情景变化下,太行菊属植物的潜在适生区面积将逐渐减少,建议相关部门给予高度重视,并积极采取有效的保护措施。

In order to analyze the geographical distribution and influencing factors of Opisthopappus in China,MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential suitable distribution areas of Opisthopappus in China.The results showed as follows:Opisthopappus was mainly distributed in the junction of Henan,Hebei and Shanxi Provinces.The distribution range of the suitable area was 31.5°-40.5°N and 112.5°-120.3°E.The total area of suitable area was 218600 km2.Six environmental variables including the average temperature in the coldest quarter,annual precipitation,the ratio of diurnal and annual temperature differences,the standard deviation of seasonal temperature changes,the lowest temperature in the coldest month and the average temperature in the driest season,were the main factors affecting the distribution of Opisthopappus.The AUC value of MaxEnt model was 0.994,indicating that the prediction result of the model was excellent.Under the future climate scenario change,the potential suitable area of Opisthopappus is gradually reduced,so relevant departments should pay great attention to it and take effective protection measures actively.