基于MaxEnt模型的陕西省菊芋种植潜在适宜区分析

Analysis of Potential Suitable Region for Jerusalem artichoke in Shaanxi Province by the MaxEnt Model

利用陕西省29个菊芋空间分布数据和26个环境因子,综合陕西省边际土地分布,运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)模拟历史时期及未来气候变化下陕西省菊芋潜在适宜区分布,并将结果叠加陕西省现有边际土地进行分析。结果表明:(1)MaxEnt模型模拟陕西省菊芋种植潜在适宜区结果精度较高,曲线下面积AUC为0.914。(2)基于历史时期环境数据,陕西省菊芋潜在分布区主要分布在榆林定边县、延安志丹县、安康汉滨区、商洛商州区和汉中西乡县,边际土地总适宜区面积约为75992km^(2),占陕西省总面积的36.9%,其中低、中、高适宜性面积分别约为63169、11617和1205km^(2),主要边际土地利用类型为中覆盖度草地。(3)影响菊芋生长的5个重要环境因子为土壤深度(142.4~155.4cm)、最暖月最高气温(29.4~31.6℃)、高程(210~593m)、坡向(70.7°~239.5°)和坡度(0~10.5°)。(4)未来4种气候情景模式下陕西省菊芋种植中、高适宜区面积总体明显增加,2021-2040年分别增加14.39%~46.46%和46.90%~95.39%,2041-2060年分别增加15.95%~71.52%和48.46%~111.40%。未来气候变化有助于陕西菊芋适宜种植区扩大,建议在榆林定边县、商洛商州区等高适宜地区开展种植实验,验证菊芋对当地环境的适宜性,探索推广培育的可行性。

As a critical non-grain energy crop material,Jerusalem artichoke holds potential to produce bio-liquid fuels as a novel energy source.To accurately identify potentially suitable areas for Jerusalem artichoke cultivation in Shaanxi,this study utilized data on the spatial distribution of 29 Jerusalem artichoke samples within the province,incorporating 26 environmental factors.In conjunction with the distribution of marginal land in Shaanxi,the study applied the MaxEnt model to simulate the potential habitat distribution under current and future climate scenarios,and the results were superimposed with the existing range of marginal land in Shaanxi for further analysis.The findings revealed that:(1)the MaxEnt model exhibited high precision(current AUC=0.914)in simulating the potential habitat of Jerusalem artichoke in Shaanxi.(2)The potential distribution of Jerusalem artichoke currently lies primarily in Dingbian,Zhidan,Xixiang Hanbin District in Ankang,Shangzhou District in Shangluo and Xixiang,with the total suitable area of marginal land approximating 75992km^(2),accounting for 36.9%of the total area.The low,medium and high suitability areas amount to approximately 63169km^(2),11617km^(2),and 1205km^(2)respectively,with the primary marginal land use type being moderately coverage grassland.(3)The key environmental factors influencing Jerusalem artichoke growth are soil depth(142.4−155.4cm),the highest temperature in the warmest month(29.4−31.6℃),elevation(210−593m),aspect(70.7°−239.5°),and slope(0−10.5°).(4)Under four future climate scenarios,the overall area suitable for medium to high-intensity cultivation of Jerusalem artichoke in Shaanxi is expected to see a significant increase.Specifically,the area of medium to high suitability for the cultivation of Jerusalem artichoke is expected to increase by 14.39%to 46.46%and 46.90%to 95.39%from 2021 to 2040,and by 15.95%to 71.52%and 48.46%to 111.40%from 2041 to 2060.In conclusion,current and future climate changes are likely to expand the suitable cultivation area for Jerusalem artichoke in Shaanxi.In conclusion,comparing the historical climate data,the future climate change will help to expand the suitable Jerusalem artichoke growing area in Shaanxi.Experimental introductions in highly suitable areas,such as Dingbian and Shangzhou districts in Shangluo are recommended to verify the suitability of Jerusalem artichoke to the local environment and explore the feasibility of extended cultivation.