后冷战时期阿富汗暴力冲突的时空演变及行为体互动特征研究

Study on the spatio-temporal evolution and behavioral interactions of the violence conflict in Afghanistan during the Post-Cold War Period

当今世界的死亡和不稳定大多由暴力冲突事件造成,且冲突空间被视为领土和网络嵌入性的结合停留在理念层面,因此,揭示其时空演变和探索冲突行为体的互动特征具有迫切的现实与理论意义。鉴于此,立足冲突空间的概念化,搭建“事件-网络”分析框架,综合运用核密度、趋势面和社会网络分析等方法,系统分析冷战结束以来阿富汗不同时期暴力冲突的“位置-方向-形态-关系(网络)”。研究表明(:1)冲突是人地关系错配形成的复杂系统。阿富汗冲突阶段性特征与地缘战略地位升降和行为体网络关联密切,“战斗季节”特征明显,低强度占据主导和主要。(2)冲突的空间格局形态受地形及其走向的裹挟与制约。阿富汗冲突受兴都库什山脉的影响,面域趋势为东北-西南向,“点-线-面”特征逐渐强化,冲突空间呈“O”形分布形态。(3)行为体“解网”与“结网”表征下的权力博弈与冲突密切相关。阿富汗国内行为体关联渐趋“解网化”,阿富汗政府-塔利班构成内部冲突核心“关系对”;域外参与主体“结网低”,且尚未形成社区网络互动迹象。研究捕捉了冲突空间如何将社会关系网络与地理位置背景相结合,以理解国家内部卷入持续冲突的方式,揭示冲突产生的空间社会性,加深对阿富汗“帝国坟场”空间发生机制的理解。

Since most of the deaths and instability in today's world are caused by violent conflict events,and the combination of conflict space as territorial and network embeddedness remains at the conceptual level,it is of urgent practical and theoretical significance to reveal its spatio-temporal evolution and explore the interactive characteristics of conflict actors.In view of this,based on the conceptualization of conflict space,we built an"event-network"analysis framework,and comprehensively used kernel density estimation,trend surface and social network analysis methods to systematically analyze the"location-direction-form-relationship(network)"of violent conflicts in Afghanistan in different periods since the Post-Cold War.The study shows that:(1)Conflict is a complex system formed by the mismatch of human-territorial relations.The phased characteristics of the conflict in Afghanistan are closely related to the rise and fall of its geostrategic position and networks of actors,the obvious characteristics of"fighting season",and the predominance of low-intensity conflict.(2)The spatial pattern of conflict is coerced and restricted by topography and its direction.The Hindu Kush Mountains influence the conflict in Afghanistan,and the trend of the surface area is northeast-southwest,with the"point-line-area"feature gradually strengthening.The conflict space has an"O"shaped distribution pattern.(3)The power game and conflict are closely related to the characterization of"un-netting"and"netting"of actors.In Afghanistan,domestic actors tend to"un-net",with the Afghan government-Taliban constituting the core"relationship pair"in the internal conflict.The network of extraterritorial participants is"low",and there is no sign of community network interaction.The study captures how conflict space combines social networks and geographic contexts in order to understand the ways in which countries are internally involved in ongoing conflicts,revealing the spatial sociality of conflict generation,and is expected to deepen the understanding of the spatial mechanisms of in Afghanistan's"imperial graveyard".