中国制造业碳排放脱钩效应及其分解研究——基于区域与行业层次双重视角

Research on the Decoupling Effect of Carbon Emissions in China's Manufacturing Industry and Its Decomposition:A Dual Perspective of Regional and Industrial Levels

“双碳”战略背景下,推进碳排放脱钩是实现制造业高端化、绿色化的必然之举。在制造业碳排放脱钩研究方面,现有研究更多基于全国层面对制造业整体行业进行碳排放脱钩分析,缺乏分区域、分行业方面的研究,研究视角不够具体。文章从区域与行业层次双重视角出发,采用Tapio脱钩模型与LMDI、Kaya恒等式融合方法,考察中国制造业碳排放脱钩效应及其分解效应。研究发现:东、中、西部制造业的碳排放脱钩效应呈现出不同特征,在高质量发展阶段整体上要好于快速发展阶段;高端和低端制造业相比中端制造业更容易实现碳排放脱钩。此外,在脱钩效应分解方面,碳排放强度对东、中、西部制造业碳排放脱钩作用总体为正,产出规模为负,产业结构作用方向不明确。在行业层次视角上,产出规模、产业结构、碳排放强度等因素对中端制造业碳排放脱钩影响最为显著,其次是高端制造业,低端制造业受影响最小。这一研究结果为制定针对性的制造业降碳措施提供重要参考。

In the context of the‘dual carbon’strategy,promoting decoupling of carbon emissions is an essential step towards achieving high-end and green manufacturing.However,existing research on decoupling carbon emissions in the manufacturing industry mainly focuses on a national level analysis of the overall industry,lacking studies at regional and sectoral levels with insufficient specificity.This article takes a dual perspective from both regional and sectoral levels to examine the decoupling effects of carbon emissions in China’s manufacturing industry using the Tapio decoupling model combined with LMDI and Kaya identity decomposition methods.The study finds that there are different characteristics regarding decoupling effects among manufacturing industries in eastern,central,and western regions.Overall better performance is observed during the stage of high-quality development compared to rapid development.High-end and low-end manufacturing sectors are more likely to achieve decoupling compared to mid-range manufacturing.Furthermore,factors such as output scale,industrial structure,and carbon intensity have significant impacts on their respective roles in achieving decoupling of carbon emissions at the sectoral level perspective;followed by high-end manufacturing sectors while low-end sectors are least affected.