贵州冰雹灾害强度评估方法研究

Research on Assessment Method of Hailstorm Disaster Intensity in Guizhou

【目的】为快速评估单次过程冰雹强度和范围,及时为灾后救援、勘察和保险核灾工作提供参考依据。【方法】该文利用贵州省2021—2023年141次冰雹过程的多普勒天气雷达资料和探空资料,结合降雹观测资料和灾害损失调查记录,在贵州山区防雹业务预报预警指标的框架下,通过历史资料回算的定性评估结果跟网格化处理后的降雹数据做一致性对比,选取冰雹强度精细化评估的影响结果覆盖94%以上的降雹观测点位置且收敛性较好的阈值作为单时次的识别指标确定的依据,采用加权时间积分方法建立冰雹过程评估模型,该模型能够对冰雹过程进行精细化评估得到1 km空间分辨率的评估结果。【结果】为验证评估结果的准确性,选取了一次典型灾害开展无人机遥感调查,将反演结果与评估结果作对比检验,25处冰雹受灾位置中有22处降雹区位于评估范围的重度区域内,3处降雹区位于评估结果对应的中度灾害范围内,调查情况与冰雹精细化评估的强度范围和分布一致。以六盘水市风雹灾害损失记录和冰雹影响面积区域评估数据作对比分析,结果表明3种不同冰雹强度的评估面积与直接经济损失数据的两两相关系数均达到0.8以上,在0.01的显著性水平下进行假设检验,具有显著正相关。【结论】检验结果说明该评估方法在冰雹区域强度评估中能够较好地反映实际受灾程度。

To rapidly assess the intensity and extent of individual hail events,and timely provide references for post-disaster rescue,survey,and disaster insurance-related checking,we carried out this research within the framework of hail prevention and forecasting indicators in Guizhou mountainous areas by using the Doppler weather radar data and sounding data of 141 hail events in Guizhou Province in 2021-2023,as well as hail area observation data and records of disaster losses.In this article,qualitative assessment results from hindcasted historical data are compared with grid-processed hail data for consistency.Thresholds,which have high accuracy,cover more than 94%of hail-observation site locations and show good convergence around hail areas,are determined as the basis for single-event identification.A weighted time integration method is employed to establish a hail process assessment model,which can provide a fine-scale evaluation of hail processes with a spatial resolution of 1 km.To validate the accuracy of the assessment results,a case study involving unmanned aerial vehicle remote sensing is conducted.The retrieved results are compared with assessment results.The findings reveal that 22 out of 25 hail-hit spots are situated in severe zones of the assessment range,and the remaining three are within the moderate disaster ranges,as indicated by the assessment.The investigation aligns with the intensity range and distribution derived from the fine-scale hail assessment.In addition,a comparative analysis is also performed based on the records of losses from the wind and hail disasters and the assessed data of hail-impact area in Liupanshui City.The results indicate that the pairwise correlation coefficients between the assessed areas of three different hail intensities and direct economic loss data all exceed 0.8,passing a hypothesis test at the 0.01 significance level,which shows a significant positive correlation.The verification results indicate that this proposed assessment method has a commendable ability in reflecting the actual extent of losses accurately in the intensity evaluation of hail-prone regions.