要素密集度视角下中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易合作潜力及提升路径研究——基于254种产品贸易的证据

Research on the potential and improvement path of trade cooperation between China and the“Belt and Road”countries from the perspective of elemental intensity:Evidence based on trade in 254 products

十年来,“一带一路”已成为新时代中国对外贸易合作的新亮点。文章基于新经济地理学理论,以“一带一路”沿线60个国家为研究样本,利用2001—2019年跨国面板数据,从空间视阈运用动态空间面板随机前沿模型检验了要素禀赋对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易合作的影响效应,在此基础上分析了中国与“一带一路”国家贸易合作效率的变化特征,并分析了不同类别商品贸易的合作潜力,进而结合二维矩阵思想依据要素禀赋和贸易潜力的适配性提出未来释放贸易合作潜力的路径。研究结论表明:基于互联互通指数构建空间互联互通矩阵,检验发现中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易合作存在时间—空间双重正向依存关系,自然资源要素和资本要素对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易合作具有显著促进作用,而劳动力要素方面存在一定“竞争关系”,创新要素的贸易促进效应尚未充分发挥。在控制变量方面,东道国经济规模、工业化程度、城镇化水平、两国间存在共同边界、签订协议和加入世界贸易组织贸易均有利于中国与“一带一路”国家间贸易合作,地理距离仍然是阻碍双边贸易合作的重要因素。除此之外,双边贸易合作还会受到非效率因素的影响,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家间贸易合作尚有较大拓展潜力,以上结论经过贸易距离矩阵和经济地理矩阵稳健性检验后依然成立。在异质性方面,进一步发现中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易合作存在明显产品异质性特征。在贸易效率方面,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易合作效率不断提升,尚未达到“最优状态”。从贸易潜力层级看,再造型贸易伙伴数量最少,成长型贸易伙伴居多,不同类别产品贸易潜力层级结构呈现非均衡结构特征。最后,结合二维矩阵思想,依据要素禀赋与贸易潜力的适配性,可将贸易伙伴划分为集约高效型、效率引领型、稳步提升型和规模扩张型四类贸易伙伴,在此基础上提出单边突破式、扬优补短渐进式和跨越式三种贸易潜力释放路径,为促进“一带一路”实现“贸易畅通”,高质量推动共建“一带一路”提供重要参考和借鉴。

Over the past ten years,the“Belt and Road”has become a new highlight of China’s foreign trade cooperation in the new era.Based on the theory of new economic geography,this paper takes 60 countries along the“Belt and Road”as the research samples,and utilizes the cross-country panel data from 2001 to 2019 to test the effect of factor endowment on the trade cooperation between China and the countries along the“Belt and Road”from the spatial perspective by applying the dynamic spatial panel stochastic frontier model,based on which it analyzes the characteristics of the changes in the efficiency of the trade cooperation between China and the countries along the“Belt and Road”and the potential for the cooperation in the trade of different types of commodities,and then combines the idea of the two-dimensional matrix to propose the path for the release of the potential of the trade cooperation in the future on the basis of the appropriateness of the factor endowment and the potential of the trade.The conclusions are as follows:This paper constructs a spatial connectivity matrix based on the connectivity index,and finds that there exists a double positive time-space dependence relationship between China’s trade cooperation with countries along the“Belt and Road”.Natural resource and capital factors play a significant role in promoting trade cooperation between China and the countries along the“Belt and Road”,while there is a certain degree of“competition”in terms of the labor factor,and the trade-promoting effect of the innovation factor has not yet been given full play,and the trade-promoting effect of the innovation factor has not yet been fully realized.In terms of control variables,the size of the host country’s economy,the degree of industrialization,the level of urbanization,the existence of a common border between the two countries,the signing of the agreement and the accession to the World Trade Organization are all conducive to the trade cooperation between China and the“Belt and Road”countries,geographic distance is still an important obstacle to bilateral trade cooperation,in addition to capital,bilateral trade cooperation is also subject to inefficiency factors,there is still a greater potential for expansion of China’s trade cooperation with countries along the“Belt and Road”,the above conclusions are still established after the trade distance matrix and the economic and geographic matrix of the robustness of the test.In terms of heterogeneity,it is further found that trade cooperation between China and countries along the“Belt and Road”is characterized by significant product heterogeneity.In terms of trade efficiency,the efficiency of trade cooperation between China and countries along the“Belt and Road”has continued to improve,but has not yet reached an“optimal state”.In terms of trade potential hierarchy,the number of re-modeling trading partners is the smallest,and the number of growth trading partners is the most,and the structure of trade potential hierarchy of different categories of products is characterized by an unbalanced structure.Finally,combining the two-dimensional matrix idea,based on the suitability of factor endowment and trade potential,trade partners can be divided into four types of trade partners:intensive and efficient,efficiency-led,steadily improving and scale-expanding.Based on this,we propose three paths of unilateral breakthrough,progressive improvement and leapfrog in releasing trade potential,which can provide an important reference for the promotion of the“Belt and Road”to realize the“smooth flow of trade”,and provide important references for the high-quality promotion of the construction of the“Belt and Road”.