广东省新型城镇化耦合协调的时空特征及驱动因素研究

Research on the Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of the Coupling Coordination of New Urbanization in Guangdong Province

基于发展层次把新型城镇化划分为“城镇可持续发展”“城镇体系优化”“城乡一体化”三个子系统,运用耦合协调和灰色关联度模型研究广东省新型城镇化耦合协调的时空特征及驱动因素。研究表明:2010—2021年间,广东省新型城镇化存在显著的区域差异,三个子系统的变化态势不尽相同,城镇可持续发展指数最高,城镇体系优化指数最低;子系统之间存在相互促进趋势,珠三角地区属于中度协调类型,粤东、粤西、粤北地区在中度失调和基本协调之间交替波动。驱动因素按影响程度从强到弱排序依次为政府调控、经济基础、投资拉动、人力资本和产业结构。最后,从强化顶层设计、制定差异化发展规划和完善区域协调发展体系等方面提出对策建议。

Based on the development level,the new urbanization is divided into three subsystems:“urban sustainable development”,“urban system optimization”,and“urban-rural integration”.The coupling coordination and grey correlation model are used to study the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of the coupling coordination of new urbanization in Guangdong Province,China.Research shows that there are significant regional differences in the new urbanization in Guangdong Province in 2010-2021,with varying trends in the three subsystems.The urban sustainable development index is the highest,while the urban system optimization index is the lowest.There is a trend of mutual promotion among subsystems,with the Pearl River Delta region generally belonging to the moderate coordination type,while the eastern,western,and northern regions of Guangdong alternate between moderate imbalance and basic coordination.The driving factors ranked from strong to weak are:government regulation,economic foundation,investment driving,human capital,and industrial structure.Finally,policy recommendations are proposed from strengthening top-level design,formulating differentiated development plans,and improving the regional coordinated development system.