京津冀地区高质量发展水平综合评价与预警

Comprehensive Evaluation and Early Warning of High-Quality Development Level in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

京津冀协同发展战略提出以来,三地协同发展取得积极进展,但距目标要求还有很大差距。本文选取2010—2019年京津冀地区高质量发展指标数据,利用因子分析法对各地区及整体发展水平进行综合评价,基于综合得分对其预警,并运用灰色预测分析方法,借助MATLAB软件对未来5年京津冀地区高质量发展情况进行预测。研究发现,京津冀地区整体高质量发展综合得分情况较好,但各地区发展综合得分还有一定的提升空间,且地区间存在差异,这种不均衡的发展态势为三地区未来协同发展提出了新的挑战。

After the release of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy,the coordinated development of the three regions has made positive progress but there is still a gap from the its target.Therefore,the comprehensive evaluation and early warning of the high-quality development level of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is carried out.The high-quality development index data of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2010 to 2019 are selected and the overall development level of each place and the whole region is comprehensively evaluated based on factor analysis method.The comprehensive score from the analysis helps give early warning of the development.The high-quality development situation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the nextfive years is predicted by using grey forecasting and MATLAB(Matrix Laboratory).The study found that the overall comprehensive scores for high-quality development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are relatively good,but there is still room for improvement in the comprehensive scores of each region,and there are differences between regions.This uneven development trend poses new challenges for the future coordinated development of the three regions.