基于FLUS-Markov模型的玉溪市生态系统服务价值时空演变与预测

The Temporal and spatial evolution and prediction of ecosystem service value in Yuxi City based on the FLUS-Markov model

基于玉溪市2010年、2020年2期生态景观类型数据和粮食产量经济价值修正生态系统服务价值系数,分析玉溪市生态景观类型及生态系统服务价值分布特征,采用FLUS-Markov模型预测玉溪市2030年生态系统服务价值及其分布。结果表明,该模型预测结果的Kappa系数提高至0.8969,整体精度为0.9393,精度较高;2010—2020年玉溪市林地、草地的面积呈减少趋势,以林地、草地、水域为主的生态系统仍然面临威胁;2030年玉溪市生态系统服务价值为535.0471亿元,变化率为-0.1297%,玉溪市应加强对林地、草地的保护,加强退耕还林、退耕还草政策的实施,合理控制草地、林地向耕地的转化;2030年玉溪市生态系统服务价值依然表现为西部>中部>东部;2030年玉溪市各县市区生态系统服务价值贡献率由高到低依次为新平县、元江县、峨山县、易门县、华宁县、红塔区、江川区、澄江市、通海县。

Based on the ecological landscape type data of Yuxi City in 2010 and 2020,and the economic value correction ecosystem service value coefficient of grain production,analyzed the ecological landscape types and distribution characteristics of ecosystem service value in Yuxi City were analyzed,and the FLUS-Markov model was used to predict the ecosystem service value and its distribution in Yuxi City by 2030.The results showed that the Kappa coefficient of the predicted results of the model had been increased to 0.8969,with an overall accuracy of 0.9393,indicating high accuracy;from 2010 to 2020,the area of forest and grassland in Yuxi City showed a decreasing trend,and the ecosystem mainly composed of forest,grassland,and water still faced threats;the ecosystem service value of Yuxi City was 53.50471 billion yuan,with a change rate of-0.1297%in 2030.Yuxi City should strengthen the protection of forest and grassland,strengthen the implementation of policies for returning farmland to forest and grassland,and reasonably control the conversion of grassland and forest land to arable land;the ecosystem service value of Yuxi City showed still as follows:west>center>east in 2030;the contribution rates of ecosystem service value from high to low were Xinping County,Yuanjiang County,Eshan County,Yimen County,Huaning County,Hongta District,Jiangchuan District,Chengjiang City,and Tonghai County in various counties and districts of Yuxi City in 2030.