基于PLUS-InVEST模型的生态脆弱区生境质量时空演变分析

Temporal and spatial evolution analysis of habitat quality in ecologically vulnerable areas based on PLUS-InVEST model

基于PLUS模型预测阿坝州生态脆弱区2030年土地利用情况,并利用InVEST模型计算2000年、2010年、2020年及2030年生境质量,对其时空演变进行分析。结果表明,研究区草地、湿地退化情况显著且裸地持续增加,预计2030年裸地面积将达334.38 km^(2);与2000年相比将会有204.55 km^(2)湿地退化。驱动因子中,降雨是限制林地、湿地扩张的主要因素,侧面反映水源涵养功能的重要性;草地受各项因子的影响程度相差不大,一般生长在远离政府的地方,且其面积扩张受DEM限制;气温是导致裸地增加的主要因素。生境质量总体较高但空间分布差异较大,且有缓慢变差的趋势,预计2030年生境质量低的区域面积将比2000年增加670.28 km^(2),主要由扩张的耕地、建设用地造成。未来生境质量降低的速率将有所减缓,但仍需加强人工措施来阻止降低。

Based on the PLUS model,the land use situation in ecologically vulnerable areas of Aba Prefecture in 2030 was predicted,and the InVEST model was used to calculate the habitat quality in 2000,2010,2020 and 2030,and analyze its temporal and spatial evolution.The results showed that the degradation of grassland and wetland in the study area was significant and the bare land continued to increase.It was estimated that the area of bare land would reach 334.38 km^(2) in 2030;compared with 2000,there would be 204.55 km^(2) of wetland degradation.Among the driving factors,rainfall was the main factor limiting the expansion of forest land and wetlands,which reflected the importance of water conservation function;there was little difference in the degree of grasslands affected by various factors,the grass land generally grew in places far from the government,and the area expansion was limited by DEM;air temperature was the main factor leading to the increase of bare land.The habitat quality was generally high,but the spatial distribution varied greatly,and there was a slow deterioration trend.It was expected that the area with low habitat quality would increase by 670.28 km^(2) in 2030 compared with 2000,mainly caused by the expansion of cultivated land and construction land.The rate of habitat quality degradation would slow down in the future,but artificial measures were still needed to prevent the decline.