中国农业农村现代化的时空演变特征及影响因素分析

Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of China’s Agricultural and Rural Modernization

农业农村现代化既是农业高质量发展的必然选择,也是实现中国式现代化的关键目标之一。文章通过构建农业农村现代化评价指标体系,对2002—2021年我国农业农村现代化水平进行统计测度,分析其时空演变特征,并在此基础上识别其影响因素,探究其影响机理,定量测度各因素的影响程度。研究结果显示:2002—2021年,我国农业农村现代化水平整体呈上升趋势,区域差异逐步缩小,区域间差异是我国农业农村现代化总体差异的主要来源。2021年我国各区域农业农村现代化指数整体呈自东向西逐渐递减的趋势,且存在较显著的正向空间相关性,但该空间集聚态势随时间推移在不断演变,高值集聚区主要分布于东部地区。经济发展水平、城镇化水平、数字普惠金融对我国农业农村现代化具有积极作用,而工业化水平对农业农村现代化有一定的消极影响,财政支农力度则对农业农村现代化的影响不显著。

Agricultural and rural modernization is an inevitable choice for high-quality agricultural development,and it is al-so one of the key goals to achieve Chinese-style modernization.This paper scientifically constructs the evaluation index system of agricultural and rural modernization,statistically measures the level of agricultural and rural modernization in China from 2002 to 2021,analyzes its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics,and identifies its influencing factors,explores its influencing mecha-nism,and quantitatively measures the influence degree of each factor.The research results are shown as follows:From 2002 to 2021,the overall level of agricultural and rural modernization in China has shown an upward trend,and the regional differences have gradually narrowed,and the regional differences are the main source of the overall differences in China’s agricultural and ru-ral modernization.In 2021,the agricultural and rural modernization index of each region in China showed a decreasing trend from the east to the west,and there was a significant positive spatial correlation,but the spatial agglomeration trend continued to evolve with time,and the high-value agglomeration areas were mainly distributed in the eastern region.Economic development level,ur-banization level,and digital inclusive finance have a positive effect on China’s agricultural and rural modernization,while indus-trialization level has a certain negative impact on agricultural and rural modernization;fiscal support degree for agriculture has no significant impact on agricultural and rural modernization.