中国式现代化:水平测算、演变格局与收敛规律

Chinese Path to Modernization:Level Measurement,Evolution Pattern and Convergence Law

为全面客观地评价中国式现代化水平,文章首先从经济繁荣、共同富裕、精神富有、生态文明、平安和谐五个维度构建中国式现代化评价指标体系,然后基于2010—2021年中国31个省份的数据,采用熵值法对中国式现代化水平进行测算,最后用Dagum基尼系数、马尔科夫链、收敛模型对中国式现代化水平的时空演变规律和长期演变特征进行分析。研究结果表明,中国式现代化水平在各区域不断提升,且东部地区明显高于中西部地区。从区域差异来看,中国式现代化水平的差异在中西部地区缩小,而在东部地区逐渐扩大,其差异主要来自区域间差异。从转移的时空规律来看,中国式现代化水平的等级转移具有稳定性,且存在“俱乐部收敛”现象,地理背景在中国式现代化水平的转移过程中发挥着重要作用。从长期发展趋势来看,中国式现代化水平随时间的推移而逐步提升,且呈现向高值集中的趋势。从收敛性来看,仅在中西部地区存在σ收敛,但是收敛性不强,而在全国及三大地区均存在β收敛,但收敛速度存在差异,具体表现为西部地区>中部地区>东部地区。

In order to comprehensively and objectively evaluate the level of Chinese-style modernization,this paper first builds an evaluation index system of Chinese-style modernization from the five dimensions of economic prosperity,common pros-perity,spiritual wealth,ecological civilization,and safe and harmony,then uses the entropy method to calculate the level of Chi-nese-style modernization based on the provincial data from 2010 to 2021,and finally uses Dagum Gini coefficient,Markov chain and the convergence model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution pattern and long-term evolution characteristics of the level of Chinese-style modernization.The research results show that the level of Chinese-style modernization is constantly improving in various regions,and that the eastern region is significantly higher than the central and western regions.From the perspective of re-gional differences,the difference in the level of Chinese-style modernization has narrowed in the central and western regions,but gradually expanded in the eastern regions,mainly from the differences between regions.From the perspective of the temporal and spatial law of the transfer,the hierarchical transfer of the level of Chinese-style modernization is stable,and there is a phenome-non of“club convergence”.The geographical background plays an important role in the transfer process of Chinese-style modern-ization level.From the perspective of long-term trend,the level of Chinese-style modernization gradually improves with the pas-sage of time,and presents a trend of high value concentration.From the perspective of convergence,there isσconvergence only in the central and western regions,but the convergence is not strong,and there isβconvergence in the whole country and the three major regions,but the convergence speed is different,which is manifested as the western region>the central region>the eastern region.