成渝双城经济圈高质量发展质量及协调性研究

Research on the high-quality development and coordination of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic cluster

选取2006—2020年成渝双城经济圈16个市作为研究对象,探究人口与经济之间的时空协调性、构建空间面板模型探究各驱动因素对经济发展的影响机制、剖析社会发展质量、城市群结构发展空间分布格局等特征。实证结果表明:(1)人口发展协调指数整体呈现震荡式分布态势,2020年,城市耦合协调度基本高于0.8;(2)仅有人均GDP、对外开放水平对其经济指数具有明显促进作用;(3)社会发展格局呈现“核心高,中部、东北部低”的空间差异;(4)城市规模质量由2006年极度集中(D=2.05)降至2020年的相对均衡(D=1.08),整体规模表现为以成都和重庆为联系中心的放射状非均衡结构。

This paper selects 16 prefecture-level cities within Chengdu-Chongqing economic region,covering the time span from 2006 to 2020,as the research subjects.It investigates the temporal and spatial coordination between population and economy,builds a spatial panel model to explore the impact mechanisms of various driving factors on economic development,analyzes the quality of social development,and examines the spatial distribution patterns of urban cluster structure development.Our empirical results indicate:①the overall population development coordination index exhibits a fluctuating distribution pattern,in 2020,the coupling coordination degree of most cities was greater than 0.8;②only per capita GDP,and the level of openness to the outside world have significant effects on its economic index;③the spatial pattern of social development shows a spatial differentiation of“fast development at its core area,under-development at its central and northeast area”;④the quality of urban size has transformed from extreme concentration(D=2.05)in 2006 to relative equilibrium(D=1.08)in 2020,with an overall scale characterized by a radiating imbalanced structure centered around Chengdu and Chongqing.