2024—2035年学前教育学龄人口及其对资源需求的预测——基于“三孩”政策的研究

Predictions of Preschool Age Population and Resource Demands from 2024 to 2035:A Study Based on the“Three-Child”Policy

在“三孩”政策全面实施背景下,本文基于第七次全国人口普查数据,使用CPPS2020软件分高、低两种总和生育率方案预测2024—2035年学前教育出生人口、学龄人口和在园幼儿数,进而测算各年份幼儿园机构、专任教师和财政投入需求。结果发现:2035年我国出生人口在高、低方案下较2024年提升99万人、减少6万人;学龄人口和在园幼儿总量整体减少,向城市集聚,到2035年在园幼儿规模为2498—2752万人,其中71%—72%就读于城镇幼儿园。从教育资源现有供给水平来看,城乡学前机构与城镇专任教师可以满足未来需求,乡村专任教师和教育经费存在大量短缺。基于此,需统筹城乡幼儿园的配置;促进城乡教师资源流动;建立各级财政分项目按比例承担学前教育经费的分担机制,加大学前的教育财政投入;财政投入更多用于人员经费和公用经费。

Against the background of the full implementation of the“three-child”policy,this study,based on the data from the Seventh National Population Census,uses the CPPS2020 software to predict the birth population,the school-age population,and the number of children enrolled in preschools in the period of 2024-2035.It uses the two total fertility rate scenarios including high and low fertility rates and measures the demand for full-time teachers and financial inputs for each of these years in kindergarten institutions.The results include:in 2035,China’s birth population will increase by 990000 and decrease by 60000 under the high scenarios and low scenarios respectively compared with 2024;the total number of school-age population and children in kindergartens will decrease overall and cluster towards cities,and the scale of children in kindergartens will be between 24.98 million and 27.52 million by 2035,with 71%to 72%of the children in kindergartens attending school in cities and towns.In terms of the current level of supply of educational resources,preschool institutions in urban and rural areas and full-time teachers in towns and cities can meet future demand,while there is a large shortage of full-time teachers and education funding in villages.There is a need to coordinate the allocation of urban and rural preschools,promote the mobility of urban and rural teaching resources,establish a mechanism for sharing preschool education funding proportionally according to different projects and the various levels of the financial systems,and allocate more financial input to costs of personnel and utility.