中国城市旅游业绿色发展效率的时空分异及空间溢出效应分析

Spatio-temporal Differentiation and Spillover Effect of Green Development Efficiency of Urban Tourism Industry in China

绿色发展是旅游业可持续发展的应有之义,旅游业绿色发展效率是衡量旅游业绿色发展水平的重要标准。综合运用Super-SBM-Undesirable模型、Markov链、Dagum基尼系数、空间杜宾模型等多种方法分析2010~2019年中国城市旅游业绿色发展效率的动态演进趋势、空间差异大小及差异来源、以及其影响因素的空间溢出效应等。结果表明:(1)2010~2019年中国城市旅游业绿色发展效率呈现明显的“W”型阶段变化特征,在空间上具有较为显著的集聚特征。(2)中国城市旅游业旅游发展效率存在明显的“俱乐部趋同”现象,并且短期内难以实现跨越式增长。高效率城市的倒退风险高于其他等级,主要向较高效率下移。(3)中国城市旅游业绿色发展效率的总体基尼系数整体上呈现略微下降的趋势,但是波动性较强,并且阶段性特征较为明显。在2013年之前,空间差异呈现逐渐扩大趋势,随后在2014~2017年,呈现较为显著地缩小趋势,而后呈现略微扩大趋势。旅游业绿色发展效率存在空间差异的主要原因是区域内差异。(4)旅游专业化水平、交通通达度表现出正向溢出效应,而经济发展水平表现出负向溢出效应。最后,基于研究结论,提出相应建议,对促进中国城市旅游业高质量发展具有重要意义。

Green development is an important factor for the tourism sustainability.The green development efficiencyof tourism industry is a significant standard for the implementation of green developmentin tourism industry.This study analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and the evolution trend of green development efficiency in China’s urban tourism industry from 2010 to 2019.Simultaneously,the Dagum Gini coefficient was employed to analyze the spatial differences and the sources of green development efficiency in China’s urban tourism industry.Finally,the spatial Durbin model was used to analyze the spatial spillover effect of the influencing factors.The following results were found:(1)The green development efficiency of China’s urban tourism industry during the study period demonstrated a fluctuating trend,“W”development trend,and a significant spatial agglomeration feature.(2)There was a phenomenon of“club convergence”in the green development efficiency of the urban tourism industry,which indicated the challenges in achieving the leapfrog development in the short run.The retrogression risk of high-efficiency cities was higher than that of other grades,mainly moving down toward higher efficiency.(3)The overall Gini coefficient of the green development efficiency decreased slightly,but it exhibited strong fluctuations,and the stage characteristics were obvious.Before 2013,the spatial difference showed a gradually expanding trend,followed by a relatively significant decreasing trend from 2014 to 2017,and finally a slightly expanding trend.Regional differences contributed significantly to the overall differences in green development efficiency.(4)The specialization level of tourism industry and traffic accessibility had a positive spillover effect,while the economic development level had a negative spillover effect.Finally,based on the conclusions,the corresponding suggestions were put forward,which were of great significance in promoting the high-quality development of the urban tourism industry in China.