基于固碳服务供需视角的区域碳平衡研究——以长三角生态绿色一体化发展示范区为例

Measuring Regional Balance of Carbon Sequestration from the Perspective of Supply and Demand A Case Study of Yangtze River Delta Eco:logical Greening Development Demonstration Area

生态系统固碳服务能够通过自然植被的光合作用直接固定大气中CO_(2),其供需平衡对于缓解全球变暖的趋势至关重要。然而,当前研究大多关注生态系统固碳服务的供给,基于供需视角分析区域碳平衡的研究相对较少。长三角生态绿色一体化发展示范区是实施长三角一体化发展战略的先手棋和突破口,也是长三角地区实现“双碳”目标的关键区域。以长三角生态绿色一体化发展示范区为研究区,基于CASA模型评估固碳服务的供给能力,基于人口密度法识别固碳服务的需求动态,进而基于供需比指数识别示范区固碳服务的供需变化。结果表明,供给方面,2000~2020年示范区内不同乡镇固碳服务供给空间分布较为均衡,固碳服务供给总量由1.10×10^(9)kg增加到1.24×10^(9)kg,整体呈波动上升趋势。需求方面,2000~2020年示范区固碳服务需求由7.15×10^(9)kg增长到4.16×10^(10)kg,增长近5倍,且所有乡镇的固碳服务需求均有所增加。2000~2020年,示范区固碳供给难以满足其需求,且固碳服务供需比持续下降,供需关系逐渐趋于紧张。最后,基于固碳服务供给、需求和供需比开展固碳服务分区,以期为示范区双碳目标实现提出具有针对性的决策建议。

Carbon sequestration service can directly fix CO_(2) in the atmosphere through the photosynthesis of natural vegetation,and the balance of supply and demand is crucial for mitigating the trend of global warming.However,most of the current studies focused on the supply of carbon sequestration service,and few focused on regional carbon supply-demand balance.The Yangtze River Delta Ecological Greening Development Demonstration Area(Demonstration Area)is the first step and breakthrough to implement the integration development strategy in the Yangtze River Delta.It is also the key area to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in the Yangtze River Delta.Taking the Demonstration Area as a study area,this paper evaluated the supply of carbon sequestration service based on CASA model,and identified the demand of carbon sequestration service based on population density method.This paper also explored the supply,demand and supply-demand ratio of carbon sequestration service.The results showed that,in terms of supply,the spatial distribution of carbon sequestration service in different towns was relatively balanced from 2000 to 2020.The total carbon sequestration increased from 1.10×10^(9) kg to 1.24×10^(9) kg,with a fluctuating trend.In terms of demand,the demand for carbon sequestration service increased from 7.15×10^(9) kg to 4.16×10^(10) kg from 2000 to 2020,an increase of nearly five times.The demand for carbon sequestration service in all towns showed an increasing trend.From 2000 to 2020,the carbon sequestration supply was difficult to meet its demand,and the supply-demand ratio continued to decline,indicating a tense relationship between supply and demand.Finally,based on the supply,demand and supply-demand ratio of carbon sequestration services,this study carried out carbon sequestration service zoning.This paper aimed to put forward targeted decision-making suggestions for the realization of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in the Demonstration Area.