我国城乡宫颈癌死亡率趋势分析及预测

Analysis and prediction of mortality of cervical cancer in China

目的:分析中国女性2004年至2017年宫颈癌死亡率的变化趋势并对未来10年死亡率的趋势进行预测。方法:收集2004年至2017年中国肿瘤登记年报宫颈癌死亡数据,建立JoinPoint回归模型计算我国城乡粗死亡率的平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change,AAPC),分析其变化趋势。建立自回归滑动平均混合模型(autoregress iveintegrated moving average model,ARIMA)粗死亡率进行拟合,预测未来10年宫颈癌粗死亡率。结果:2004-2017年,我国城市及农村宫颈癌粗死亡率呈上升趋势,其对应AAPC值分别为8.05%(P<0.001)和4.28%(P<0.001)。对宫颈癌死亡数据进行分析,确定城市及农村预测模型分别为ARIMA(0,1,0)和ARIMA(0,1,1),至2027年我国城市及农村宫颈癌死亡率将升高至7.38/10万和7.73/10万。结论:过去14年间我国妇女宫颈癌的死亡率呈上升趋势,未来10年仍将继续增加且农村妇女死亡率高于城市妇女。

Objective:To analyze the trend of the mortality of cervical cancer in Chinese women and predict the mortality in the next 10 years.Methods:The crude death of cervical cancer from 2004 to 2017 was obtained from the Chinese Annual Cancer Registry.The Joinpoint software was used to calculate the average annual percent change(AAPC) of the crude death rate of cervical cancer in urban and rural women from 2004 to 2017,and to analyze its trend.Autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA) was established to fit the mortality rates andpredict the crude mortality in the next 10 years.Results:The crude mortality rate of cervical cancer in urban and rural areas increased from 2004 to 2017,and the corresponding AAPC values were 8.05%(t=19.93,P<0.001) and 4.28%(t=7.04,P<0.001),respectively.Based on the analysis of cervical cancer death data,the prediction models for urban and rural areas are GM(1,1) and ARIMA(0,1,1),respectively.By 2027,the urban and rural cervical cancer death rates will increase to 7.38/100 000 and 7.73/100 000,respectively.Conclusion:The mortality of cervical cancer among Chinese women has been on the rise for the past 14 years and will continue to increase in the next 10 years,while the mortality of urban women will exceed that of rural women.