基于AcciMap-BN的城镇燃气管网生产安全事故致因分析

Cause analysis approach for work safety accidents in urban gas pipeline network based on AcciMap-BN

【目的】中国城镇燃气管网生产安全事故近年来呈现频发态势,对公共安全造成了严重的负面影响。现有研究缺乏对城镇燃气管网生产安全事故致因的量化剖析,亦未明确不同类型事故的关键致灾路径。探讨城镇燃气管网生产安全事故典型致因及最大致因链,能够为保障燃气行业安全生产提供理论依据和实践支撑。【方法】基于对中国2014—2022年间322起典型事故的回顾,识别运营、施工、第三方破坏3类主要事故类型;集成事故地图(Accident Map,AcciMap)模型与贝叶斯网络(Bayesian Network,BN)建立分析框架,基于客观数据量化剖析风险因素及其逻辑关系,从而有效降低主观意见造成的偏差。【结果】3类事故的发生概率从高至低依次为第三方破坏事故、施工事故、运营事故;其最大致因链均涉及政府政策与预算、监管机构与组织、企业管理3个层级;不良社会环境负面影响、人员违规指挥和违章作业、第三方单位违章或野蛮施工分别是运营、施工、第三方破坏事故的核心诱因;政府部门安全监管不力是事故的客观根源,相关企业安全管理制度缺欠则是主观关键原因。【结论】应基于协同视角,针对最大致因链和高敏感度节点采取风险防控措施。地方政府应修订相关法律,提升应急能力,加强安全监管;燃气企业应完善相关制度,提高施工质量,强化巡线检修;第三方单位应深化同政府和燃气企业的协作,共建管网安全保护体系。

[Objective]Work safety accidents in urban gas pipeline networks have been increasing in frequency in recent years in China,causing significant negative impacts on public security.However,existing research in this area lacks quantitative analysis of the causes behind these accidents and fails to identify key pathways leading to these disasters of different types.Therefore,the current discussion on the typical causes and dominant chains of causation leading to work safety accidents in urban gas pipeline networks can greatly contribute to establishing a theoretical foundation and providing practical support for ensuring work safety within the gas industry.[Methods]Based on a review of 322 typical accidents that occurred in China between 2014 and 2022,three primary categories of accidents were identified:operation,construction,and third-party damage.An analysis framework was established,integrating Accident Map(AcciMap)and Bayesian Network(BN),intended for quantitatively analyzing risk factors and their logical relationships based on objective data,while effectively reducing deviations caused by subjective opinions.[Results]This study revealed a descending order in the probability of occurrence for these three categories of accidents:third-party damage accidents,construction accidents,and operation accidents.The dominant chains of causation in each category involve government policies and budgets,regulatory authorities and organizations,as well as enterprise management.Core inducements for accidents were identified as adverse social environment impacts in operation accidents,rule-breaking behaviors in command and operation activities in construction accidents,and rule-breaking or brutal construction by third-party entities in third-party damage accidents.Moreover,this study uncovered the objective root causes of accidents,which can be attributed to deficient safety supervision by government authorities,while also highlighting the subjective key causes of accidents,that is deficient safety management systems within relevant enterprises.[Conclusion]Based on the analysis results,several recommendations are proposed.To effectively address the dominant chains of causation and highly sensitive nodes,collaborative risk prevention and control measures should be implemented.Local governments are advised to review and amend relevant laws,enhance their emergency response capabilities,and strengthen safety supervision.Gas enterprises should prioritize improvements in relevant systems,enhance construction quality,and intensify their efforts in patrol inspection and maintenance.Third-party entities are encouraged to foster closer cooperation with the government and gas enterprises.These collective initiatives aim to establish an efficient and effective pipeline network safety protection system in order to mitigate accidents.