基于4种生态位模型的橘小实蝇在四川盆地潜在分布区

Potential Distribution of Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel in Sichuan Basin Based on Four Niche Models

研究旨为橘小实蝇在四川盆地的检疫检测、综合防治及风险分析提供科学决策参考。运用基于最大熵(Maxent)、遗传算法(Garp)、环境包络原理(Bioclim)和Gower距离算法(Domain)的4种生态位预测模型预测橘小实蝇在四川盆地潜在适生区,并采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)和Kappa统计量分析方法检验模型预测效果。结果表明,4种模型的ROC曲线下的面积AUC(area under the ROC curve)平均值均大于0.9,Kappa统计量平均值亦大于0.75,预测模型具有较高的预测精度。通过“刀切法”分析得出最干季降水量、最干季平均温度、温度季节性变化和温度日较差是主导橘小实蝇潜在分布的关键环境变量,对当前橘小实蝇分布格局的形成起决定性作用。4种模型预测橘小实蝇适生面积和位置相差较大,但均包含川中丘陵区、川东平行岭谷区和盆边南部低山区,且川中丘陵区东部、川东平行岭谷区和盆边南部低山区的西部均为高、中适生区集中区域。由此可见,橘小实蝇在四川盆地适生范围较广,鉴于柑橘对四川盆地经济的重要性,当地相关部门应加强对其的检测检疫工作,避免造成较大的损失。

The purpose of this study is to provide scientific reference for the quarantine detection,comprehensive control and risk analysis of Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel in Sichuan Basin.Four niche prediction models,i.e.Maxent,GARP,Bioclim and Domain were used to predict the areas of potential distribution of B.dorsalis in Sichuan Basin.The results of different models were analyzed and compared using two statistical criteria:the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)and Kappa value.The AUC average values of the four models are all above 0.9 and the Kappa average values are above 0.75,indicating that the prediction model has high prediction accuracy.Furthermore,the paper shows that precipitation of the driest month,mean temperature of the wettest quarter,temperature seasonality and mean diurnal range are the key environmental variables that dominated the potential distribution of B.dorsalis,which play a decisive role in the formation of the current distribution of B.dorsalis.The suitable areas and locations of B.dorsalis predicted by four models are quite different,but they all contain the hilly area in central Sichuan Basin,the parallel rankvalley area in eastern Sichuan Basin and the low mountain area in southern Sichuan Basin.The highly and moderately suitable areas are concentrated in the east of the hilly area in central Sichuan Basin,the west of the parallel rank-valley area in eastern Sichuan Basin and the low mountain area in southern Sichuan Basin.It can be seen that the suitable areas of B.dorsalis in Sichuan Basin is wide.In view of the economic importance of citrus to Sichuan Basin,the local relevant departments should strengthen the detection and quarantine work of B.dorsalis to avoid large losses.